105 Baber St · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1960 8,712 sqft lot $81/sqft · 5% below area Est $158k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors take notice! This home is currently rents for $1300 a month; tenants have been in this home for 5+ years without incident. Home is offered below appraised value so there is immediate equity! A solid investment to add to your portfolio. Call to schedule you're showing today! Please do not disturb tenants.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $150k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.85%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,469
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -5.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Brenda St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,871 (+1%)	10mo	$171,000	$91	74
105 Burroughs St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+5%)	9mo	$115,000	$59	64
217 N Mission St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,914 (+3%)	4mo	$225,000	$118	63
102 Burroughs St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,671 (-10%)	10mo	$216,700	$130	61
128 Greatwood Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,953 (+5%)	7mo	$330,000	$169	59
1648 Hobson	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,632 (-12%)	2mo	$160,000	$98	54
801 Richard St	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,083 (+12%)	5mo	$175,000	$84	52
917 Richard St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,678 (-10%)	5mo	$175,000	$104	50
—	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,678 (-10%)	5mo	$175,000	$104	50
219 S Patterson St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,095 (+13%)	4mo	$1,600	$1	44
206 Noxon St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+7%)	7mo	$1,500	$1	44
706 Summer St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-14%)	10mo	$185,000	$116	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,441
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $56,790
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,145/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,196

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 Henderson St Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,000	$1.26	43d	1	1.12mi
319 Hazel St Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.0	1743	$1,895	$1.09	43d	1	1.41mi
600 Higdon Ferry Rd #300 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,250	$0.90	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-07
   price $150,000 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   Investors take notice! This home is currently rents for $1300 a month; tenants have been in this home for 5+ years without incident. Home is offered below appraised value so there is immediate equity! A solid investment to add to your portfolio. Call to schedule you're showing today! Please do not disturb tenants.

2. 2026-03-31
   price $150,000 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   Investors take notice! This home is currently rents for $1300 a month; tenants have been in this home for 5+ years without incident. Home is offered below appraised value so there is immediate equity! A solid investment to add to your portfolio. Call to schedule you're showing today! Please do not disturb tenants.

3. 2026-03-07
   listed $160,000 Active 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   Investors take notice! This home is currently rents for $1300 a month; tenants have been in this home for 5+ years without incident. Home is offered below appraised value so there is immediate equity! A solid investment to add to your portfolio. Call to schedule you're showing today! Please do not disturb tenants.

4. 2026-01-01
   listed $160,000 New Listing 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   Investors take notice! This home is currently rents for $1300 a month; tenants have been in this home for 5+ years without incident. Home is offered below appraised value so there is immediate equity! A solid investment to add to your portfolio. Call to schedule you're showing today! Please do not disturb tenants.

5. 2025-06-14
   price $199,000
6. 2019-04-16
   soldstatus $75,000 Sold
7. 2019-04-15
   soldstatus $75,000
8. 2019-03-30
   historical
9. 2019-03-29
   listed $75,000
10. 2019-03-25
    listed $75,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,145
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$429
• After-tax cash flow: $3,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $150,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $150,000 HSBOR
• 2026-03-07 Listed $160,000 HSBOR
• 2026-01-01 Listed $160,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $199,000 HSBOR
• 2019-04-16 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CARMLS
• 2019-04-15 Sold (MLS) $75,000 HSBOR
• 2019-03-30 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2019-03-29 Listed $75,000 HSBOR
• 2019-03-25 Listed $75,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,145 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.