4 Copper Ridge Cir #4 · Guilford Center, CT 06437

$425,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,459 sqft · Condo · 51 Days on market

Built 1984 $650/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in the sought-after Copper Hill Village, this detached Cape-style condo offers the privacy of a single-family home with the effortless lifestyle of a managed community. Boasting 1,459 square feet of bright, airy living space, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is designed for comfort and versatility. The heart of the home features a living area with a cozy fireplace, creating a sunny and inviting atmosphere for relaxation or entertaining. The main floor is thoughtfully laid out for those seeking one-level living offering a spacious 2nd bedroom and full bathroom and laundry. A large kitchen with ample cabinetry and updated appliances. A door off the kitchen th

Key facts

• One-level living
• Large kitchen
• Managed community

Tags

• COPPER HILL VILLAGE
• DETACHED CAPE-STYLE CONDO
• MANAGED COMMUNITY
• LIVING AREA WITH FIREPLACE
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• LARGE KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 57-unit complex
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; HOA fee $650/month; Association covers grounds maintenance, trash pickup, snow removal, property management, road maintenance, and insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Condominium in Copper Hill Village; End unit; 2 stories
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Clapboard siding; Lightly wooded lot; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (natural gas); Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; 2 levels; 1 fireplace; Attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Domestic hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.1% in Guilford Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in CT, #1,186 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Guilford School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #19 of 153 in CT (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Guilford High School (math 60% / reading 84%, grade B+, #14 of 194 statewide, top 8%, 1,048 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $285k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,669 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-116,096
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-160,650
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06437

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,593 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $-749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,541

Max offer price $316,669

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Dunk Rock Rd Guilford, CT	3.0	2.0	1444	$4,200	$2.91	44d	1	1.00mi
1162 Moose Hill Rd Guilford, CT	2.0	1.0	960	$2,550	$2.66	3d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
3. 2026-04-07
   price $425,000
4. 2026-03-09
   listed $450,000 Active
5. 2005-05-19
   soldstatus $285,000
6. 2005-02-01
   listed $299,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,375
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,449
• − Management: −$3,449
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$16,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,901
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford School District
• NCES district ID: 0901800
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $97,539
• Composite: 63.46/100
• National rank: #614
• State rank: #19 of 153 in CT

Livability — Guilford Center

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1186

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute C Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,037

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.02%
• Current HPI: 179.6376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+42.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $425,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $450,000 Smart MLS
• 2005-05-19 Sold (MLS) $285,000 Smart MLS
• 2005-02-01 Listed $299,000 Smart MLS