3210 Moonlight St · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 171 Days on market

Built 1988 4,827 sqft lot Est $158k · at est. $217/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to your new fully furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in a gated community with NO age restriction. This property offers a corner lot with a sprinkler system, side and front Florida rooms, and a side by side 2 car carport. The house features a 2022 HVAC with an ultraviolet anti-bacteria system and upgraded thermostat, as well as upgraded double thermal pane insulated glass windows and doors with a hurricane rating. The water heater has a dual adjustable timer for energy efficiency. Inside, you'll find an oversized walk-in closet in the primary bedroom, dual sinks in the primary bath, walk in closet in the second bedroom and built in China buffet

Key facts

• Gated community
• Florida rooms
• Hurricane rating

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CORNER LOT
• FLORIDA ROOMS
• HURRICANE RATING
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• BUILT IN CHINA BUFFET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total monthly fees shown as $217; total annual fees shown as $2,604
• HOA & community: HOA managed by RealManage; Monthly association fee of $217 (required; association approval required); Community clubhouse, pool, playground, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Buyer approval required; Pets allowed (max 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces west; Entry on single level
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Side porch; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Shed(s); Irrigation equipment; Corner lot; Paved, private lot (in county)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Blinds and drapes; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (inside laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $150k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.98%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,696
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3141 Great Oak St	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,226 (-0%)	1mo	$125,000	$102	96
3045 Shady Creek Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,214 (-2%)	6mo	$130,000	$107	86
3145 Hickory Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-7%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	83
34334 Timberland Blvd	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,357 (+10%)	8mo	$170,000	$125	64
3041 Short Leaf St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (-5%)	11mo	$157,500	$135	63
34135 Brown Byu	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (-12%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	59
3841 Julie Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	13mo	$135,000	$108	55
3819 Kim Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,318 (+7%)	6mo	$99,900	$76	52
3915 Kiah Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-6%)	5mo	$225,000	$195	46
34645 Lily Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-14%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	40
3924 Kiah Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-7%)	12mo	$215,000	$188	39
3818 Chris Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+14%)	9mo	$180,000	$128	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,203
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $9,930
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 650
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,409

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $462	+0% $419	+5% $377	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $266	-5% $343	+0% $419	+5% $496	+10% $572
Rate	-1.0pp $495	-0.5pp $457	base $419	+0.5pp $380	+1.0pp $341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	16d	1	0.23mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	26d	1	0.70mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	26d	1	0.80mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	6d	1	0.83mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	18d	1	0.84mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	14d	1	0.84mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	26d	1	0.84mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	4d	1	0.89mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	18d	1	0.92mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,956	$1.85	1d	13	0.93mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	26d	1	0.97mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	26d	1	1.01mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	26d	1	1.05mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	23d	1	1.05mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	12d	1	1.05mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	16d	1	1.06mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	26d	1	1.09mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	6d	1	1.16mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	0d	70	1.36mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,208	$2.16	4d	46	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $149,900 Pending 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-04-20
   status Active
8. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-30
   price $149,900
10. 2026-01-21
    price $159,900
11. 2025-12-16
    listed $169,500 Active
12. 1997-12-01
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$675/yr (+$56/mo · 118.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$688
• After-tax cash flow: $4,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+256.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listed $169,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.