18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 121 Lot 121 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1978 6,407 sqft lot $57/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION - Close to the clubhouse and sits in the middle of the park. 1978 2 Bed, 2 bath, at 1392 esf. Priced for only $95,000!!! This is a nice, manufactured home in a Senior Park 55/45 with nice landscaping, a private fenced back yard, level driveway and parking, plus an added-on room which could make it a 3-bedroom home. Located in lovely Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. Currently offering FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community, dog park, and much more. This home is move in ready with a nice front porch that is perfect for relaxing and enjoying the country atmosphere. It is a quick walk to the clubhouse. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dog park
• Added-on room

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED BACK YARD
• ADDED-ON ROOM
• FULL CLUBHOUSE USE
• GATED COMMUNITY
• DOG PARK
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.3% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $80k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 142.97%
• DSCR: 7.36
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,450
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -65.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,306 (-6%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	76
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 211 Lot 211	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	2mo	$205,000	$164	76
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+10%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	75
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	73
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+12%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	70
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (-3%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	67
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+10%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	66
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (+10%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	64
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+12%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	62
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #12	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+10%)	22mo	$129,000	$84	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.01×
• Total profit: $157,055
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.88×
• Total profit: $355,792
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $758/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$847
• Net cashflow: $2,669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $653

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,714	-5% $2,691	+0% $2,669	+5% $2,646	+10% $2,624
Rent	-10% $2,350	-5% $2,510	+0% $2,669	+5% $2,828	+10% $2,987
Rate	-1.0pp $2,709	-0.5pp $2,689	base $2,669	+0.5pp $2,648	+1.0pp $2,627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $80,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $95,000 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION - Close to the clubhouse and sits in the middle of the park. 1978 2 Bed, 2 bath, at 1392 esf. Priced for only $95,000!!! This is a nice, manufactured home in a Senior Park 55/45 with nice landscaping, a private fenced back yard, level driveway and parking, plus an added-on room which could make it a 3-bedroom home. Located in lovely Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. Currently offering FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community, dog park, and much more. This home is move in ready with a nice front porch that is perfect for relaxing and enjoying the country atmosphere. It is a quick walk to the clubhouse. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

16. 2026-02-27
    price $115,900 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION - Close to the clubhouse and sits in the middle of the park. 1978 2 Bed, 2 bath, at 1392 esf. Priced for only $95,000!!! This is a nice, manufactured home in a Senior Park 55/45 with nice landscaping, a private fenced back yard, level driveway and parking, plus an added-on room which could make it a 3-bedroom home. Located in lovely Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. Currently offering FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community, dog park, and much more. This home is move in ready with a nice front porch that is perfect for relaxing and enjoying the country atmosphere. It is a quick walk to the clubhouse. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

17. 2026-01-10
    listed $121,900 Active 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION - Close to the clubhouse and sits in the middle of the park. 1978 2 Bed, 2 bath, at 1392 esf. Priced for only $95,000!!! This is a nice, manufactured home in a Senior Park 55/45 with nice landscaping, a private fenced back yard, level driveway and parking, plus an added-on room which could make it a 3-bedroom home. Located in lovely Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. Currently offering FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community, dog park, and much more. This home is move in ready with a nice front porch that is perfect for relaxing and enjoying the country atmosphere. It is a quick walk to the clubhouse. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

18. 2025-10-26
    historical
19. 2025-10-09
    price $119,500
20. 2025-09-20
    price $120,000
21. 2025-06-13
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2023-07-26
    historical
23. 2023-04-21
    price $185,000
24. 2023-04-21
    price $195,000
25. 2023-03-19
    price $195,000
26. 2022-11-13
    price $199,000
27. 2022-10-28
    historical
28. 2022-10-25
    listed $229,000 Active
29. 2022-10-25
    listed $229,000 Active
30. 2013-08-27
    soldstatus $39,000 Sold
31. 2013-08-27
    soldstatus $39,000
32. 2013-08-06
    status Pending
33. 2013-08-02
    listed $39,000 Active
34. 2013-08-01
    listed $39,000
35. 2013-07-09
    historical
36. 2013-07-08
    historical
37. 2013-05-08
    price $52,000
38. 2013-03-07
    price $57,000
39. 2013-02-01
    listed $63,000 Active
40. 2013-01-08
    listed $52,000
41. 2013-01-02
    historical
42. 2012-12-31
    historical
43. 2012-01-06
    price $64,900
44. 2011-11-03
    status Active
45. 2011-11-01
    historical
46. 2011-04-16
    listed $69,000 Active
47. 2011-04-15
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $758 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $758 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$758
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,870
• − Management: −$3,870
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $32,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,841
• After-tax cash flow: $24,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+46.4% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $115,900 CRMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $121,900 CRMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $119,500 CRMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-04-21 Price Changed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-21 Price Changed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-19 Price Changed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2022-11-13 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2022-10-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-10-25 Listed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2022-10-25 Listed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2013-08-27 Sold (MLS) $39,000 CRMLS
• 2013-08-27 Sold (MLS) $39,000 SDMLS
• 2013-08-06 Pending — SDMLS
• 2013-08-02 Listed $39,000 SDMLS
• 2013-08-01 Listed $39,000 CRMLS
• 2013-07-09 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2013-07-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2013-05-08 Price Changed $52,000 SDMLS
• 2013-03-07 Price Changed $57,000 SDMLS
• 2013-02-01 Listed $63,000 SDMLS
• 2013-01-08 Listed $52,000 CRMLS
• 2013-01-02 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2012-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-01-06 Price Changed $64,900 SDMLS
• 2011-11-03 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2011-11-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2011-04-16 Listed $69,000 SDMLS
• 2011-04-15 Listed $64,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2013): $758 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.