120 4th St · Pilger, NE 68768

$128,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1900 $77/sqft · 25% below area Est $172k · 25% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you’ve been looking for a home with plenty of space and potential, this one might be worth a look. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage plus a carport, this property offers room to spread out both inside and out. Some rooms have hardwood floors, and the kitchen is spacious enough for everyday use. A few newer windows have been added over the years, and the enclosed front porch provides extra space for storage or relaxing. Sitting on a double lot, there’s extra yard space and room for projects.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900
• Listed 173 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (46.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $69k (46.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#369 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wisner-Pilger Public Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #61 of 111 in NE (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wisner-Pilger Elem School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #136 of 502 statewide, top 31%, 249 students, 53% FRL); Wisner-Pilger High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #146 of 261 statewide, top 67%, 188 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 29% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Stanton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($891 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Stanton County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,739 (46.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,337
• List price: $128,900
• Delta: -25.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
345 Monroe St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (+8%)	11mo	$170,000	$94	49
230 Stanton St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,460 (-13%)	21mo	$106,000	$73	49
240 E 4th St	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,436 (-14%)	23mo	$219,000	$153	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,207
• Equity at exit: $81,452

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $65,119
• Equity at exit: $148,073

Cash invested: $36,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68768

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,040/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $68,739

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-268	-5% $-304	+0% $-341	+5% $-377	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-390	+0% $-341	+5% $-291	+10% $-242
Rate	-1.0pp $-276	-0.5pp $-308	base $-341	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,225
• Closing costs: $3,867
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   If you’ve been looking for a home with plenty of space and potential, this one might be worth a look. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage plus a carport, this property offers room to spread out both inside and out. Some rooms have hardwood floors, and the kitchen is spacious enough for everyday use. A few newer windows have been added over the years, and the enclosed front porch provides extra space for storage or relaxing. Sitting on a double lot, there’s extra yard space and room for projects.

2. 2026-03-24
   price $128,900 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   If you’ve been looking for a home with plenty of space and potential, this one might be worth a look. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage plus a carport, this property offers room to spread out both inside and out. Some rooms have hardwood floors, and the kitchen is spacious enough for everyday use. A few newer windows have been added over the years, and the enclosed front porch provides extra space for storage or relaxing. Sitting on a double lot, there’s extra yard space and room for projects.

3. 2026-02-11
   price $138,900 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   If you’ve been looking for a home with plenty of space and potential, this one might be worth a look. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage plus a carport, this property offers room to spread out both inside and out. Some rooms have hardwood floors, and the kitchen is spacious enough for everyday use. A few newer windows have been added over the years, and the enclosed front porch provides extra space for storage or relaxing. Sitting on a double lot, there’s extra yard space and room for projects.

4. 2025-12-15
   price $139,900 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   If you’ve been looking for a home with plenty of space and potential, this one might be worth a look. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage plus a carport, this property offers room to spread out both inside and out. Some rooms have hardwood floors, and the kitchen is spacious enough for everyday use. A few newer windows have been added over the years, and the enclosed front porch provides extra space for storage or relaxing. Sitting on a double lot, there’s extra yard space and room for projects.

5. 2025-11-26
   listed $149,900 Active 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   If you’ve been looking for a home with plenty of space and potential, this one might be worth a look. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage plus a carport, this property offers room to spread out both inside and out. Some rooms have hardwood floors, and the kitchen is spacious enough for everyday use. A few newer windows have been added over the years, and the enclosed front porch provides extra space for storage or relaxing. Sitting on a double lot, there’s extra yard space and room for projects.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,040 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,220
• − Property taxes: −$2,040
• − Insurance: −$5,763
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$3,750
• Taxable loss: −$6,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wisner-Pilger Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100008
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,046
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2963
• State rank: #61 of 111 in NE

Livability — Pilger

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #369
• US rank: #13716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilger, NE
• Population (ZIP): 707

Population outlook (Stanton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,408 people
• By 2030: 5,121 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 4,491 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 3,855 · -28.7%
• By 2075: 2,552 · -52.8%
• By 2100: 1,412 · -73.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.9pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.05%
• Current HPI: 343.6669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NNEMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $128,900 NNEMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $138,900 NNEMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $139,900 NNEMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $149,900 NNEMLS

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,040 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.