10780 Shagbark Trl · Roswell, GA 30075

$434,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,609 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1978 0.88 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• 0.88 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• HIGHLY-RANKED SCHOOL DISTRICT
• EASY ACCESS TO CITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.7% in Roswell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#12 in GA, #1,990 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crabapple Middle School (math 54% / reading 73%, grade B+, #31 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 871 students, 13% FRL); Roswell High School (math 54%, 2,119 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools average 18% FRL vs 41% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fulton County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,076 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-90,372
• Equity at exit: $64,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-88,356
• Equity at exit: $37,602

Cash invested: $121,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30075

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,522/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,593

Max offer price $364,772

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,725
• Closing costs: $13,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10160 N Coleman Rd Roswell, GA	3.0	2.0	1373	$3,000	$2.18	18d	1	1.27mi
180 Moonshadow Ct Roswell, GA	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,350	$1.29	43d	1	1.42mi
1305 Village Ln Roswell, GA	3.0	2.0	1717	$3,250	$1.89	11d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-21
   soldstatus $428,000 Sold 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

2. 2026-04-22
   status Under Contract 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

3. 2026-04-22
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

4. 2026-04-09
   price $434,900

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

5. 2026-04-09
   price $434,900 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

6. 2026-03-20
   price $479,900 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

7. 2026-03-20
   price $479,900

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

8. 2026-02-19
   price $494,900

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

9. 2026-02-19
   price $494,900 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

10. 2026-02-13
    price $504,900 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

11. 2026-02-13
    price $504,900

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

12. 2026-02-04
    listed $520,000 New 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

13. 2026-02-04
    listed $520,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Updated, spacious, and perfectly located! This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom split-level home in Roswell offers over 2,200 sq. ft. of polished living space. Highlights include a stunning updated kitchen and a layout designed for modern life. Situated in a highly-ranked school district, this home combines suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities.

14. 1977-04-25
    soldstatus $55,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,522 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,522 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,361
• − Property taxes: −$4,522
• − Insurance: −$2,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,967
• − Management: −$2,967
• − Depreciation: −$12,652
• Taxable loss: −$12,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,013
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1990

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roswell, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 102,317
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 56,263
• Household income: $157,335
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1111.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.20%
• Current HPI: 284.642
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.72%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+675.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) $428,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $434,900 FMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $434,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $479,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $479,900 FMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $494,900 FMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $494,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $504,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $504,900 FMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $520,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $520,000 GAMLS
• 1977-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,522 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.