1278 Lincoln St · North Vandergrift, PA 15690

$20,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1908 4,704 sqft lot $21/sqft · 65% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Kiski Area School District, this property presents a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to bring their vision to life. In need of renovation, this home offers the chance to rehab, update, and create something new—perfect for adding value or customizing to your style.

Key facts

• 4,704 sq ft lot
• Built 1908
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($821 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,712 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kiski Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #247 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 58 units permitted in Armstrong County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Armstrong County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.69%
• DSCR: 5.84
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,803
• List price: $20,000
• Delta: -65.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1290 Jefferson St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+10%)	16mo	$114,000	$108	56
233 Sherman Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-6%)	15mo	$65,000	$72	51
1117 Clarion Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (+9%)	22mo	$120,000	$115	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.97×
• Total profit: $39,021
• Equity at exit: $18,018

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.7%
• Equity multiple: 17.60×
• Total profit: $92,945
• Equity at exit: $38,856

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15690

• Home prices YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $821 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $341/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $263

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $446	+0% $441	+5% $435	+10% $429
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $408	+0% $441	+5% $473	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $451	-0.5pp $446	base $441	+0.5pp $436	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 McKinley Ave Unit 121-B Vandergrift, PA	2.0	1.0	1064	$850	$0.80	44d	1	0.42mi
121 McKinley Ave Vandergrift, PA	2.0	1.0	1064	$795	$0.75	8d	1	0.42mi
148 Grant Ave Vandergrift, PA	1.0	1.0	1000	$795	$0.80	15d	1	0.43mi
148 Grant Ave Apt F Vandergrift, PA	1.0	1.0	1000	$795	$0.80	18d	1	0.44mi
434 Mckinley Ave Vandergrift - WML, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	933	$899	$0.96	2d	3	0.67mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $20,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $20,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $20,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $20,000 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Located in the Kiski Area School District, this property presents a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to bring their vision to life. In need of renovation, this home offers the chance to rehab, update, and create something new—perfect for adding value or customizing to your style.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $341 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $341 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$341
• − Insurance: −$897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$789
• − Management: −$789
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $5,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,281
• After-tax cash flow: $4,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kiski Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212840
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,407
• Composite: 39.72/100
• National rank: #3900
• State rank: #247 of 539 in PA

Livability — North Vandergrift

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1712
• US rank: #26169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Vandergrift, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,359

Population outlook (Armstrong County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,513 people
• By 2030: 59,579 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 52,890 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 45,904 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 32,023 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 20,415 · -67.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Subsaharan African 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Armstrong

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: -24.6pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+52.3 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+37.2 2008: R+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.69%
• Current HPI: 253.8806
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $20,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $341 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.