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3626 Luxor Way
D+ Composite 47.36
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +11.7/15.0
  • Cash flow +11.3/30.0
  • Schools +5.4/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • 1% rule +4.1/10.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • DSCR +3.3/10.0
  • Rent growth +3.3/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$237,990

3626 Luxor Way · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · Townhouse · 147 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 1,742 sqft lot Garage $169/sqft · 9% below area Est $262k · 9% under $150/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 5% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

Key facts

  • Cabana and pool
  • Upstairs laundry
  • $150 HOA

Tags

OPEN CONCEPT MAIN FLOORPRIVATE PRIMARY SUITEUPSTAIRS LAUNDRYCABANA AND POOL

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (5.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (9.2% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 873 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Recommended offer $209,431 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.91% ✗
Cap rate
5.85%
Cash-on-cash
-1.59%
DSCR
0.93
GRM
9.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$262,495
List price
$237,990
Delta
-9.34%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3645 Luxor Way 0.03mi 3/2.5 1,406 (0%) 1mo $255,000 $181 98
3641 Luxor Way 0.03mi 3/2.5 1,406 (0%) 1mo $244,990 $174 97
3622 Luxor Way 0.01mi 3/2.5 1,406 (0%) 3mo $257,990 $183 97
3653 Luxor Way 0.04mi 3/2.5 1,406 (0%) 2mo $239,990 $171 96
3633 Luxor Way 0.03mi 3/2.5 1,482 (+5%) 2mo $263,990 $178 88
3632 Luxor Way 0.10mi 3/2.5 1,482 (+5%) 1mo $259,990 $175 86
3786 Cairo Way 0.02mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 1mo $293,000 $183 76
823 Iken St 0.14mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 2mo $284,990 $178 69
815 Iken St 0.13mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 3mo $279,990 $175 69
3794 Cairo Way 0.17mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 2mo $289,990 $181 68
3766 Cairo Way 0.18mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 2mo $298,490 $187 67
3260 Chestnut Ridge Way 0.71mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,381 (-2%) 2mo $247,500 $179 55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-18.4%
Equity multiple
0.35×
Total profit
$-43,292
Equity at exit
$35,485
10-year hold
IRR
-9.9%
Equity multiple
0.38×
Total profit
$-41,267
Equity at exit
$20,577

Cash invested: $66,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Methodology + full state rankings →
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
14 active · 15 under contract
Months of supply
5.2 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$250,532 ($184/sqft)
Median days on market
102 d
This list price
14% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32068

Home prices YoY
-27.5%
Rents YoY
3.4%
Active inventory
873
Price-to-rent
9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,160 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,248
Tax est. 1.5%
−$297 /mo · $3,570/yr
Insurance
−$99
HOA
−$150
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$454
Net cashflow
$-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,272
Max offer price $225,232
Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $76 -5% $-6 +0% $-88 +5% $-170 +10% $-253
Rent -10% $-259 -5% $-173 +0% $-88 +5% $-3 +10% $82
Rate -1.0pp $32 -0.5pp $-28 base $-88 +0.5pp $-150 +1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$59,498
Closing costs
$7,140
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 27 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL 2.0–3.0 2.5 1624 $2,699 $1.66 0d 87 0.12mi
3363 Roundabout Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1420 $1,960 $1.38 10d 1 0.23mi
3587 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1557 $1,979 $1.27 0d 1 0.24mi
3604 Prairie Wind Ct Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,650 $1.42 7d 1 0.39mi
656 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1345 $1,779 $1.32 64d 1 0.42mi
827 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,750 $1.51 10d 1 0.45mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,665 $1.44 93d 1 0.48mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,665 $1.44 83d 1 0.48mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.0 1860 $2,200 $1.18 119d 1 0.52mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1068 $2,438 $2.28 0d 20 0.73mi
816 Redtail Ln Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.0 1821 $2,100 $1.15 10d 1 0.94mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Unit 22 Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1768 $1,500 $0.85 4d 1 0.96mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1768 $2,195 $1.24 0d 1 0.96mi
3349 Horseshoe Trail Dr Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1771 $2,060 $1.16 3d 1 1.06mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1704 $1,950 $1.14 67d 1 1.17mi
607 Reese Ave Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1475 $1,800 $1.22 0d 1 1.19mi
619 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1683 $1,895 $1.13 88d 1 1.21mi
1255 Bedrock Dr Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1673 $2,271 $1.36 4d 1 1.22mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1715 $2,275 $1.33 113d 1 1.26mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1715 $2,195 $1.28 10d 1 1.26mi
979 Misty Maple Ct Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1673 $2,145 $1.28 10d 1 1.26mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5–3.0 1760 $1,850 $1.05 88d 1 1.32mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0–3.0 1862 $1,850 $0.99 97d 2 1.32mi
1064 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1713 $1,949 $1.14 67d 1 1.36mi
4007 Leatherwood Dr Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1817 $2,166 $1.19 58d 1 1.37mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1502 $1,990 $1.32 99d 1 1.47mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1502 $1,850 $1.23 119d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Homeowners association with monthly fee of $150Community amenities include a park and playground

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
Utilities
Public sewerCable availableElectricity connectedSewer connectedWater connected
Home design
TownhouseResidential use
Construction
Fiber cement constructionShingle roof
Exterior features
Fencing (other)

Interior

Kitchen
DisposalElectric rangeENERGY STAR dishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms (all located on the second level)
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Kitchen islandOpen floorplanPantryPrimary bathroom with shower (no tub)Smart home featuresWalk-in closet(s)
Laundry & utility
Laundry on the upper levelElectric water heater

Listing history 40 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $237,990 Active 147 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $237,990 Active 146 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $237,990 Active 145 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $237,990 Active 144 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $237,990 Active 143 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $237,990 Active 142 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $237,990 Active 141 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $237,990 Active 140 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $237,990 Active 139 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $237,990 Active 138 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 137 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $237,990 Active 136 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $237,990 Active 135 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $237,990 Active 129 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 128 DOM
  16. 2026-09-03
    pricestatusdays on market $237,990 Active 127 DOM
  17. 2026-06-18
    status $244,990 Pending 125 DOM
  18. 2026-06-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 125 DOM
  19. 2026-06-17
    days on market $244,990 Active 124 DOM
  20. 2026-06-16
    days on market $244,990 Active 123 DOM
  21. 2026-06-15
    days on market $244,990 Active 122 DOM
  22. 2026-06-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 120 DOM
  23. 2026-06-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 119 DOM
  24. 2026-06-09
    days on market $244,990 Active 116 DOM
  25. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,990 Active 115 DOM
  26. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,990 Active 114 DOM
  27. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 110 DOM
  28. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 109 DOM
  29. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 108 DOM
  30. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 107 DOM
  31. 2026-05-14
    price $244,990 244-char remark
    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

  32. 2026-05-13
    price $244,990
  33. 2026-04-25
    status Active 244-char remark
    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

  34. 2026-04-25
    historical 244-char remark
    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

  35. 2026-04-23
    price $249,990 244-char remark
    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

  36. 2026-04-22
    price $249,990
  37. 2026-03-04
    price $252,990
    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

  38. 2026-03-04
    price $252,990 244-char remark
    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

  39. 2026-02-13
    listed $257,990 Active
  40. 2026-01-31
    listed $257,990 Active 244-char remark
    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$25,922
− Mortgage interest
−$13,331
− Property taxes
−$3,570
− Insurance
−$1,190
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,074
− Management
−$2,074
− HOA
−$1,800
− Depreciation
−$6,923
Taxable loss
−$5,040
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,210
After-tax cash flow
$152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern townhome is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a spacious kitchen, modern bathrooms, and smart home features. Landscaping and curb appeal improvements would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
  • Both Smart home features — Smart home features can increase both the resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and comfort. ↑
D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tynes Elementary School B FL #552/2,144 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Oakleaf Junior High C+ FL #217/571 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Ridgeview High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Clay
NCES district ID
1200300
Math proficiency
58% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
59% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$59,379
Composite
50.73/100
National rank
#1815
State rank
#14 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

Score
70/100
State rank
#446
US rank
#8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Oakleaf Plantation, FL
County
Clay County · 230,495 people
City population
40,366
Metro
Jacksonville, FL
Population (ZIP)
58,983
Household income
$84,431
Rent vs Own
20.7% rent · 79.3% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
230,495 people
By 2030
242,427 · +5.2%
By 2040
262,244 · +13.8%
By 2050
275,148 · +19.4%
By 2075
295,397 · +28.2%
By 2100
287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity
White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
Common ancestry
Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born
7% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home
87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

2024 margin
Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
2008→2024 swing
+3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
All cycles
2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

-5.0% since first listed
10 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-14 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
  • 2026-05-13 Price Changed $244,990 realMLS
  • 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
  • 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
  • 2026-04-23 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
  • 2026-04-22 Price Changed $249,990 realMLS
  • 2026-03-04 Price Changed $252,990 realMLS
  • 2026-03-04 Price Changed $252,990 Zillow
  • 2026-02-13 Listed $257,990 realMLS
  • 2026-01-31 Listed $257,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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