2615 3rd Ave · Groves, TX 77619

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1962 $80/sqft · 24% below area Est $92k · 24% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity! This property offers great potential for renovation or rental income. Situated in a convenient location, it provides a solid foundation to update and add value. Whether you’re looking to flip, lease, or customize to your liking, this home is a fantastic chance to build equity.

Key facts

• Build equity
• Solid foundation
• Convenient location

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• POTENTIAL FOR RENOVATION
• RENTAL INCOME
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• SOLID FOUNDATION
• BUILD EQUITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 4.0% in Groves — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#315 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Port Arthur ISD (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #796 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.03%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,687
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -23.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5301 North St	0.17mi	2/1.0	960 (+9%)	6mo	$92,700	$97	72
3121 Boyd Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	810 (-8%)	23mo	$37,500	$46	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $21,944
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $62,083
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77619

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2628 4th Ave Groves, TX	3.0	1.0	952	$1,295	$1.36	21d	1	0.06mi
3431 Canal Ave Unit 1 Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,000	$1.05	14d	1	0.60mi
6110 Willis St Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.62mi
5989 32nd St Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	1074	$1,400	$1.30	14d	1	0.66mi
6255 Warren St Apt F Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,295	$1.32	14d	1	0.80mi
6255 Warren St Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$2,600	$2.65	14d	1	0.80mi
1349 Jefferson Dr Port Arthur, TX	2.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	14d	1	0.98mi
5108 10th St Port Arthur, TX	1.0	1.0	676	$800	$1.18	14d	1	1.16mi
6800 Camden Ln Unit 21 Groves, TX	1.0	1.0	740	$850	$1.15	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $70,000 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity! This property offers great potential for renovation or rental income. Situated in a convenient location, it provides a solid foundation to update and add value. Whether you’re looking to flip, lease, or customize to your liking, this home is a fantastic chance to build equity.

17. 2026-02-27
    price $75,000 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity! This property offers great potential for renovation or rental income. Situated in a convenient location, it provides a solid foundation to update and add value. Whether you’re looking to flip, lease, or customize to your liking, this home is a fantastic chance to build equity.

18. 2026-01-05
    listed $80,000 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity! This property offers great potential for renovation or rental income. Situated in a convenient location, it provides a solid foundation to update and add value. Whether you’re looking to flip, lease, or customize to your liking, this home is a fantastic chance to build equity.

19. 2025-09-02
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$621/yr (+$52/mo · 94.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,263
• − Management: −$1,263
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $5,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,320
• After-tax cash flow: $4,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Arthur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835400
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 14.9/100
• National rank: #9373
• State rank: #796 of 826 in TX

Livability — Groves

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #7031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Groves, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 16,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,976
• Household income: $73,710
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 131.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 20% Vietnamese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.42%
• Current HPI: 183.1358
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $70,000 BBOR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $75,000 BBOR
• 2026-01-05 Listed $80,000 BBOR
• 2025-09-02 Listed $80,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $660 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.