137 S Pacific St #16 · Rockaway Beach, OR 97136

$439,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 826 sqft · Condo public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2006 $380/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn-key OCEANFRONT condo conveniently located within walking distance to restaurants & shops in downtown Rockaway Beach. Expansive Deck to enjoy the 4th of July fireworks, ocean views and stunning sunsets. This end unit boasts an open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, laundry in condo, dishwasher, & furnishings included! Enjoy all the coast has to offer just steps from the sand.

Key facts

• Beachfront living
• Natural light
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• BEACHFRONT LIVING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $439k).
• Recommended offer: $413k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#94 in OR, #4,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nehalem Elementary School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #169 of 412 statewide, top 44%, 165 students, 38% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie Middle School (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #41 of 128 statewide, top 32%, 177 students, 44% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 280 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $244k; list at $439k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $412,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.11%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-37,712
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $10,471
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97136

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,585/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$380
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$958
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,899

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 N Dolphin St Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	2.0	1020	$6,000	$5.88	44d	1	0.23mi
406 N 3rd Ave Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	1.0	762	$3,000	$3.94	44d	1	0.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $380 · $4,560/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-17
   listed $439,000 Active
3. 2018-11-29
   soldstatus $244,500 387-char remark

   Show marketing remark (387 chars)

   Turn-key OCEANFRONT condo conveniently located within walking distance to restaurants & shops in downtown Rockaway Beach. Expansive Deck to enjoy the 4th of July fireworks, ocean views and stunning sunsets. This end unit boasts an open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, laundry in condo, dishwasher, & furnishings included! Enjoy all the coast has to offer just steps from the sand.

4. 2018-11-29
   soldstatus $244,500

   Show marketing remark (387 chars)

   Turn-key OCEANFRONT condo conveniently located within walking distance to restaurants & shops in downtown Rockaway Beach. Expansive Deck to enjoy the 4th of July fireworks, ocean views and stunning sunsets. This end unit boasts an open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, laundry in condo, dishwasher, & furnishings included! Enjoy all the coast has to offer just steps from the sand.

5. 2018-06-07
   listed $249,000 387-char remark

   Show marketing remark (387 chars)

   Turn-key OCEANFRONT condo conveniently located within walking distance to restaurants & shops in downtown Rockaway Beach. Expansive Deck to enjoy the 4th of July fireworks, ocean views and stunning sunsets. This end unit boasts an open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, laundry in condo, dishwasher, & furnishings included! Enjoy all the coast has to offer just steps from the sand.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,585 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,258 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,673/yr (+$139/mo · 64.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥76°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$2,585
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,379
• − Management: −$4,379
• − HOA: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$173
• After-tax cash flow: $6,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56
• NCES district ID: 4108650
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,437
• Composite: 41.68/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #62 of 183 in OR

Livability — Rockaway Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #4777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockaway Beach, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,422

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+76.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $439,000 RMLS
• 2018-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $244,500 Public Records
• 2018-11-29 Sold (MLS) $244,500 RMLS
• 2018-06-07 Listed $249,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,585 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.