5527 94th St · Lubbock, TX 79424

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,023 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1987 6,825 sqft lot $114/sqft · 15% below area Est $272k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home located in beautifully established neighborhood. This 3/2/2 with office and 2 living areas & 2 dining areas has been very well maintained and lightly lived in and good storage throughout. Backyard paradise with spacious patio and covered outdoor storage.

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Fenced backyard
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Neighborhood has curbs, street lights, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Attached carport (2 spaces); Garage faces front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Wood fencing; City lot on a corner; Paved public-maintained city street with curbs, sidewalks, and street lights

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Gas and wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #467 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 561 students, 48% FRL); Irons Middle (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 815 students, 71% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,963 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,790
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -16.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-51,905
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-65,071
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79424

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,978/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,173

Max offer price $190,427

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-159	+0% $-224	+5% $-289	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-299	+0% $-224	+5% $-149	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-166	base $-224	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5513 95th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,575	$0.88	23d	1	0.10mi
5731 90th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	23d	1	0.38mi
5523 101st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1901	$2,100	$1.10	23d	1	0.39mi
5706 87th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,550	$1.00	16d	1	0.47mi
9701 Abbeville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,750	$0.96	23d	1	0.54mi
5216 94th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,900	$1.22	23d	1	0.57mi
9806 Genoa Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,050	$1.16	46d	1	0.61mi
10502 Beaufort Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,399	$1.36	46d	1	0.82mi
10506 Beaufort Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,399	$1.36	46d	1	0.83mi
5507 108th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,550	$0.98	23d	1	0.87mi
10510 Bangor Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2152	$2,650	$1.23	16d	1	0.90mi
5703 80th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2133	$2,295	$1.08	46d	1	0.93mi
5534 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	16d	1	1.00mi
7911 Albany Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1441	$1,350	$0.94	16d	1	1.02mi
7911 Albany Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,350	$0.94	23d	1	1.02mi
5309 77th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	2336	$2,500	$1.07	46d	1	1.13mi
5806 78th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1985	$1,800	$0.91	46d	1	1.13mi
9616 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2198	$2,150	$0.98	46d	1	1.15mi
5415 73rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,849	$1.07	23d	1	1.34mi
4715 French Quarter Ct Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2386	$2,400	$1.01	46d	1	1.36mi
5605 117th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,650	$1.30	23d	1	1.42mi
6024 74th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,999	$1.00	46d	1	1.49mi
11810 Evanston Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	46d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $230,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $230,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    remarks 546-char remark
16. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $240,000 Active 1 DOM
17. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,999 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,999 Active 24 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,999 Active 23 DOM
20. 2026-05-30
    days on market $227,999 Active 22 DOM
21. 2026-05-15
    price $239,000 400-char remark
22. 2026-05-08
    listed $240,000 Active 400-char remark
23. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus
24. 2014-05-23
    soldstatus 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Charming home located in beautifully established neighborhood. This 3/2/2 with office and 2 living areas & 2 dining areas has been very well maintained and lightly lived in and good storage throughout. Backyard paradise with spacious patio and covered outdoor storage.

25. 2014-03-20
    listed $160,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Charming home located in beautifully established neighborhood. This 3/2/2 with office and 2 living areas & 2 dining areas has been very well maintained and lightly lived in and good storage throughout. Backyard paradise with spacious patio and covered outdoor storage.

26. 2013-06-21
    soldstatus
27. 1989-11-01
    soldstatus
28. 1987-07-01
    soldstatus
29. 1987-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,978 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,978 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$4,978
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$6,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,478
• Household income: $97,231
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1958.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.64%
• Current HPI: 213.2155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $230,000 LARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $240,000 LARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $227,999 LARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $227,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $233,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2014-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-23 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2014-03-20 Listed $160,000 LARMLS
• 2013-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,978 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.