343 County Road 272 · Sargent, TX 77414

$56,139

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,151 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 277 Days on market

Built 1940 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST LISTED! Take a look at this FIXER UPPER that has a lot of potential. With a little work this could be your dream home or dream investment property. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 276 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Van Vleck ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #492 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $388 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,402 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.79%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $25,251
• Equity at exit: $8,371

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $67,108
• Equity at exit: $4,854

Cash invested: $15,719 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $438/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $448

Max offer price $56,139

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $550	+0% $534	+5% $518	+10% $503
Rent	-10% $445	-5% $490	+0% $534	+5% $579	+10% $623
Rate	-1.0pp $563	-0.5pp $549	base $534	+0.5pp $520	+1.0pp $505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,035
• Closing costs: $1,684
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $56,139 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,139 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,139 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,139 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,139 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $56,139 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $56,139 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $56,139 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $56,139 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,139 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,139 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $56,139 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $56,139 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,139 Active 259 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,139 Active 258 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $56,139 Active 257 DOM
17. 2025-09-15
    listed $56,139 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    JUST LISTED! Take a look at this FIXER UPPER that has a lot of potential. With a little work this could be your dream home or dream investment property. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $438 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$590/yr (+$49/mo · 134.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,145
• − Property taxes: −$438
• − Insurance: −$281
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$1,633
• Taxable income: $5,842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,402
• After-tax cash flow: $5,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Vleck ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843950
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,348
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6106
• State rank: #492 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sargent

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Listed $56,139 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $438 · -30.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.