Clayton 69 Birchwood Farms Plan · Birch Run, MI 48415

$137,650

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 157 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

I am excited to share details regarding a stunning, brand-new Clayton home now available in the Birchwood Farms Community. This full-drywall home is equipped with several high-end features and energy-efficient upgrades, including: - Kitchen & Living: Stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, pantry, and recessed lighting throughout. - Energy Efficiency: 90% efficient furnace, central A/C, and water heater, along with energy-saving windows. - Exterior: Covered front deck, brand-new 3-car parking pad, and a sidewalk leading to a new 8x10 shed.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Full-drywall home
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• BIRCHWOOD FARMS COMMUNITY
• FULL-DRYWALL HOME
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PANTRY
• RECESSED LIGHTING

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($162/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#341 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Birch Run Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #223 of 540 in MI (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $952 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $121,132 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-21,426
• Equity at exit: $20,524

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-17,475
• Equity at exit: $11,901

Cash invested: $38,542 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48415

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$722
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,065/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $137,650

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,412
• Closing costs: $4,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,650 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,650 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,650 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,650 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,650 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $137,650 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,650 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,650 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $137,650 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,650 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $137,650 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,650 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,650 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,650 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,650 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-01-12
    listed $137,650 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    I am excited to share details regarding a stunning, brand-new Clayton home now available in the Birchwood Farms Community. This full-drywall home is equipped with several high-end features and energy-efficient upgrades, including: - Kitchen & Living: Stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, pantry, and recessed lighting throughout. - Energy Efficiency: 90% efficient furnace, central A/C, and water heater, along with energy-saving windows. - Exterior: Covered front deck, brand-new 3-car parking pad, and a sidewalk leading to a new 8x10 shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,711
• − Property taxes: −$2,065
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$4,004
• Taxable loss: −$2,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new Clayton home in Birchwood Farms is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers high-end features and energy-efficient upgrades, making it a move-in-ready property with significant potential for value appreciation.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both Interior updates (kitchen, bathrooms, etc.) — Modernizes the home and could increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both Interior updates (kitchen, bathrooms, etc.) — Modernizes the home and could increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birch Run Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2605820
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,432
• Composite: 33.54/100
• National rank: #5430
• State rank: #223 of 540 in MI

Livability — Birch Run

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #8715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Run, MI
• Population (ZIP): 8,601

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.28%
• Current HPI: 203.5698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $137,650 Zillow