439 Driftwood Ln · Kimberling City, MO 65737

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Other · 155 Days on market

Built 1978 0.81 ac lot $91/sqft · 48% below area Est $288k · 48% under $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR/2BA (could be 4th BR) is 2 Lots in great location so close to Lake Access. Home with Wood Burning Rock Fireplace a Music/hobby Room, Sunroom w/ outdoors Storage under it, 1 car carport attached & a storage building/workshop. This house is on the 2 lots totaling just under an acre. Home offers a neat covered sitting area off carport to sit and chat as well as lots of room in the front and side yards. Many weddings were done in the front yard & where lots of Fish Stories were told. House needs a little TLC but is ready to occupy now and already has the Septic Transfer Certificate in place. Lake access is just around the corner in this neighborhood just off Hwy OO between Branson West & Kimberling City.

Key facts

• Covered sitting area
• Sunroom
• Lake home

Tags

• LAKE HOME
• MUSIC HOBBY ROOM
• SUNROOM
• WOOD BURNING ROCK FIREPLACE
• COVERED SITTING AREA
• STORAGE BUILDING WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.7% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.69%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,886
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -47.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $258
• Equity at exit: $27,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $29,605
• Equity at exit: $22,759

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65737

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $555/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Terrace Crest Ln Reeds Spring, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	43d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $150,000 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    3BR/2BA (could be 4th BR) is 2 Lots in great location so close to Lake Access. Home with Wood Burning Rock Fireplace a Music/hobby Room, Sunroom w/ outdoors Storage under it, 1 car carport attached & a storage building/workshop. This house is on the 2 lots totaling just under an acre. Home offers a neat covered sitting area off carport to sit and chat as well as lots of room in the front and side yards. Many weddings were done in the front yard & where lots of Fish Stories were told. House needs a little TLC but is ready to occupy now and already has the Septic Transfer Certificate in place. Lake access is just around the corner in this neighborhood just off Hwy OO between Branson West & Kimberling City.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $189,700 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    3BR/2BA (could be 4th BR) is 2 Lots in great location so close to Lake Access. Home with Wood Burning Rock Fireplace a Music/hobby Room, Sunroom w/ outdoors Storage under it, 1 car carport attached & a storage building/workshop. This house is on the 2 lots totaling just under an acre. Home offers a neat covered sitting area off carport to sit and chat as well as lots of room in the front and side yards. Many weddings were done in the front yard & where lots of Fish Stories were told. House needs a little TLC but is ready to occupy now and already has the Septic Transfer Certificate in place. Lake access is just around the corner in this neighborhood just off Hwy OO between Branson West & Kimberling City.

19. 2026-01-14
    listed $221,400 Active 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    3BR/2BA (could be 4th BR) is 2 Lots in great location so close to Lake Access. Home with Wood Burning Rock Fireplace a Music/hobby Room, Sunroom w/ outdoors Storage under it, 1 car carport attached & a storage building/workshop. This house is on the 2 lots totaling just under an acre. Home offers a neat covered sitting area off carport to sit and chat as well as lots of room in the front and side yards. Many weddings were done in the front yard & where lots of Fish Stories were told. House needs a little TLC but is ready to occupy now and already has the Septic Transfer Certificate in place. Lake access is just around the corner in this neighborhood just off Hwy OO between Branson West & Kimberling City.

20. 1982-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $555 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,455 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$900/yr (+$75/mo · 162.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$555
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$301
• After-tax cash flow: $3,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeds Spring R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2926160
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,158
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5819
• State rank: #182 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kimberling City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,279

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.17%
• Current HPI: 239.032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-32.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $150,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $189,700 SOMO
• 2026-01-14 Listed $221,400 SOMO
• 1982-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $555 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.