14183 Fall Creek Ct · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$395,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 393 Days on market

Built 2006 4,791 sqft lot $333/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

H6482 New stainless-steel appliances, freshly painted, all new lighting fixtures, new carpet, HVAC replaced in 2021, hot water heated replaced 2020 make this the perfect home for you to move right in. Entertaining made easy with this great room concept floorplan. An eat in kitchen with pantry and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms, a large owner’s suite, French doors off the living area leads to an ideal office space or a 3rd bedroom. Reflection Lakes offers a clubhouse with fitness center, library, rooms for meetings and activities, billiards, large screen TV, locker rooms and showers, catering kitchen, outdoor heated pool, with a kiddie splash area, Bocce ball and outdoor pavilion with grills.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SPLIT BEDROOMS
• DEN
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on a cul-de-sac lot with deeded restrictions (no RV); Lot irrigation is central; Landscaped area view
• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees: $3,996; One-time fees: $1,000
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee ($333); HOA covers cable, insurance, internet/WiFi, lawn/land maintenance, street lights, street maintenance and trash removal; On-site management; Gated community; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, fitness center (attended), tennis courts, bocce court, billiards, library, community room, play area and internet access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Electric service for heat and cooling
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story (ranch); Built in 2006; Rear exposure faces west; Located in Reflection Lakes of Naples; Residential property
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Double-hung windows; Manual storm shutters; Built in 2006; Foundation type not specified
• Exterior features: Privacy wall; Manual sprinkler system; Screened lanai/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator/ice maker; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet; Great room floor plan; Breakfast bar and family dining; Eat-in kitchen; Den/study; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $395k).
• Recommended offer: $348k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,754/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-7,419
• Equity at exit: $86,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $60,845
• Equity at exit: $83,143

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,587/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$333
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,170

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $685	-5% $573	+0% $461	+5% $350	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $274	+0% $461	+5% $649	+10% $837
Rate	-1.0pp $660	-0.5pp $562	base $461	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14214 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,800	$1.79	24d	1	0.11mi
14214 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,700	$1.73	22d	1	0.11mi
9267 Museo Cir Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2100	$5,200	$2.48	24d	1	0.21mi
9259 Museo Cir #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,150	$1.98	24d	1	0.28mi
9255 Museo #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$9,000	$4.29	24d	1	0.31mi
14678 Fern Lake Ct Unit 1049694P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2142	$6,065	$2.83	15d	1	0.34mi
14796 Canton Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$7,000	$4.17	24d	1	0.37mi
9243 Tesoro Ln Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$6,500	$3.10	15d	1	0.42mi
9242 Tesoro Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$3,000	$1.34	24d	1	0.47mi
1937 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2214	$3,830	$1.73	22d	1	0.52mi
2244 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,300	$1.99	15d	1	0.53mi
2235 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,795	$1.86	24d	1	0.55mi
2057 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2080	$7,800	$3.75	24d	1	0.71mi
130 Grassy Key Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	15d	1	0.73mi
130 Grassy Key Ln #37 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,795	$1.44	15d	1	0.73mi
14103 Nautica Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,650	$1.97	24d	1	0.77mi
14162 Nautica Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$3,800	$2.26	24d	1	0.81mi
3031 Marengo Ct Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	15d	1	0.89mi
9571 Mussorie Ct Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2117	$12,500	$5.90	24d	1	0.91mi
14670 Catamaran Pl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1816	$7,000	$3.85	24d	1	0.93mi
14662 Catamaran Pl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$7,000	$3.44	24d	1	0.94mi
3149 Aviamar Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1890	$7,500	$3.97	15d	1	0.97mi
2850 Aviamar Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	24d	1	0.98mi
7674 Jacaranda Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$3,800	$2.45	24d	1	1.01mi
7662 Jacaranda Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1555	$3,500	$2.25	15d	1	1.03mi
7631 Jacaranda Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1542	$7,000	$4.54	24d	1	1.09mi
9104 Cherry Oaks Trl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$5,000	$2.67	24d	1	1.12mi
7567 Winding Cypress Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$11,500	$6.37	24d	1	1.12mi
2713 Callista Ct #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$6,999	$3.13	24d	1	1.13mi
14827 Edgewater Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1515	$6,500	$4.29	24d	1	1.13mi
14606 Tropical Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2046	$9,500	$4.64	24d	1	1.15mi
14888 Edgewater Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1515	$6,200	$4.09	24d	1	1.17mi
14715 Kelson Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2225	$12,000	$5.39	24d	1	1.21mi
14940 Edgewater Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$7,200	$4.74	24d	1	1.23mi
14551 Edgewater Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1515	$6,000	$3.96	24d	1	1.27mi
6767 Pennyroyal Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2185	$10,500	$4.81	24d	1	1.27mi
14558 Edgewater Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$6,500	$4.28	24d	1	1.29mi
14680 Edgewater Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1515	$3,195	$2.11	24d	1	1.30mi
14567 Edgewater Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1515	$6,500	$4.29	24d	1	1.30mi
14582 Edgewater Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1515	$7,500	$4.95	24d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $333 · $3,996/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 392 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 391 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 390 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $395,000 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 384 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 383 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $395,000 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $395,000 Active 377 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $395,000 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-03-17
    price $395,000
14. 2026-03-17
    price $395,000
15. 2026-02-14
    price $409,500
16. 2026-02-14
    price $409,500
17. 2025-12-18
    price $417,500
18. 2025-12-18
    price $417,500
19. 2025-05-21
    listed $419,500 Active
20. 2025-05-21
    listed $419,500 Active
21. 2023-02-08
    soldstatus $415,000
22. 2023-02-07
    soldstatus $415,000 Sold 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    H6482 New stainless-steel appliances, freshly painted, all new lighting fixtures, new carpet, HVAC replaced in 2021, hot water heated replaced 2020 make this the perfect home for you to move right in. Entertaining made easy with this great room concept floorplan. An eat in kitchen with pantry and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms, a large owner’s suite, French doors off the living area leads to an ideal office space or a 3rd bedroom. Reflection Lakes offers a clubhouse with fitness center, library, rooms for meetings and activities, billiards, large screen TV, locker rooms and showers, catering kitchen, outdoor heated pool, with a kiddie splash area, Bocce ball and outdoor pavilion with grills.

23. 2023-01-19
    status Pending With Contingencies 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    H6482 New stainless-steel appliances, freshly painted, all new lighting fixtures, new carpet, HVAC replaced in 2021, hot water heated replaced 2020 make this the perfect home for you to move right in. Entertaining made easy with this great room concept floorplan. An eat in kitchen with pantry and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms, a large owner’s suite, French doors off the living area leads to an ideal office space or a 3rd bedroom. Reflection Lakes offers a clubhouse with fitness center, library, rooms for meetings and activities, billiards, large screen TV, locker rooms and showers, catering kitchen, outdoor heated pool, with a kiddie splash area, Bocce ball and outdoor pavilion with grills.

24. 2022-09-09
    price $429,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    H6482 New stainless-steel appliances, freshly painted, all new lighting fixtures, new carpet, HVAC replaced in 2021, hot water heated replaced 2020 make this the perfect home for you to move right in. Entertaining made easy with this great room concept floorplan. An eat in kitchen with pantry and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms, a large owner’s suite, French doors off the living area leads to an ideal office space or a 3rd bedroom. Reflection Lakes offers a clubhouse with fitness center, library, rooms for meetings and activities, billiards, large screen TV, locker rooms and showers, catering kitchen, outdoor heated pool, with a kiddie splash area, Bocce ball and outdoor pavilion with grills.

25. 2022-07-08
    listed $449,000 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    H6482 New stainless-steel appliances, freshly painted, all new lighting fixtures, new carpet, HVAC replaced in 2021, hot water heated replaced 2020 make this the perfect home for you to move right in. Entertaining made easy with this great room concept floorplan. An eat in kitchen with pantry and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms, a large owner’s suite, French doors off the living area leads to an ideal office space or a 3rd bedroom. Reflection Lakes offers a clubhouse with fitness center, library, rooms for meetings and activities, billiards, large screen TV, locker rooms and showers, catering kitchen, outdoor heated pool, with a kiddie splash area, Bocce ball and outdoor pavilion with grills.

26. 2006-02-22
    soldstatus $1,560,060

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,587 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,587 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$3,587
• − Insurance: −$7,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,564
• − Management: −$4,564
• − HOA: −$3,996
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$89
• After-tax cash flow: $5,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-74.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $395,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $395,000 MIML
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $409,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $409,500 MIML
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $417,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $417,500 MIML
• 2025-05-21 Listed $419,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $419,500 MIML
• 2023-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $415,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-07 Sold (MLS) $415,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-01-19 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $429,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-07-08 Listed $449,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2006-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $1,560,060 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,587 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.