6515 Bethel Rd · Graysville, AL 35062

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,296 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Built 1994 1.48 ac lot $72/sqft · 28% below area Est $230k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious triple-wide manufactured home situated on approximately 1.48± acres in Dora! This 1994 model offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, bonus room with an impressive approximately 2,296+/- square feet of living space. The property includes a 2-car carport, storm shelter, and a storage barn, providing plenty of room for parking, storage, and outdoor needs. An added bonus is a second potential homesite on the property with septic system and water already in place, offering excellent possibilities for future expansion or additional residence. Located in the Corner School District, this property combines space, functionality, and opportunity in a convenient location. A great option for those looking for room to grow! County living with easy commute to Birmingham!

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• Bonus room
• Storm shelter

Tags

• TRIPLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• APPROXIMATELY 148 ACRES
• BONUS ROOM
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• STORM SHELTER
• STORAGE BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-303/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#321 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $165k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,059 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,000
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -28.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $88,224
• Equity at exit: $148,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $261,110
• Equity at exit: $320,364

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35062

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $161,251

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $164,900 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $170,000 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home situated on approximately 1.48± acres in Dora! This 1994 model offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, bonus room with an impressive approximately 2,296+/- square feet of living space. The property includes a 2-car carport, storm shelter, and a storage barn, providing plenty of room for parking, storage, and outdoor needs. An added bonus is a second potential homesite on the property with septic system and water already in place, offering excellent possibilities for future expansion or additional residence. Located in the Corner School District, this property combines space, functionality, and opportunity in a convenient location. A great option for those looking for room to grow! County living with easy commute to Birmingham!

15. 2026-03-08
    price $185,000 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home situated on approximately 1.48± acres in Dora! This 1994 model offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, bonus room with an impressive approximately 2,296+/- square feet of living space. The property includes a 2-car carport, storm shelter, and a storage barn, providing plenty of room for parking, storage, and outdoor needs. An added bonus is a second potential homesite on the property with septic system and water already in place, offering excellent possibilities for future expansion or additional residence. Located in the Corner School District, this property combines space, functionality, and opportunity in a convenient location. A great option for those looking for room to grow! County living with easy commute to Birmingham!

16. 2026-01-20
    status Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home situated on approximately 1.48± acres in Dora! This 1994 model offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, bonus room with an impressive approximately 2,296+/- square feet of living space. The property includes a 2-car carport, storm shelter, and a storage barn, providing plenty of room for parking, storage, and outdoor needs. An added bonus is a second potential homesite on the property with septic system and water already in place, offering excellent possibilities for future expansion or additional residence. Located in the Corner School District, this property combines space, functionality, and opportunity in a convenient location. A great option for those looking for room to grow! County living with easy commute to Birmingham!

17. 2026-01-13
    historical Contingent 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home situated on approximately 1.48± acres in Dora! This 1994 model offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, bonus room with an impressive approximately 2,296+/- square feet of living space. The property includes a 2-car carport, storm shelter, and a storage barn, providing plenty of room for parking, storage, and outdoor needs. An added bonus is a second potential homesite on the property with septic system and water already in place, offering excellent possibilities for future expansion or additional residence. Located in the Corner School District, this property combines space, functionality, and opportunity in a convenient location. A great option for those looking for room to grow! County living with easy commute to Birmingham!

18. 2026-01-07
    listed $189,000 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Spacious triple-wide manufactured home situated on approximately 1.48± acres in Dora! This 1994 model offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, bonus room with an impressive approximately 2,296+/- square feet of living space. The property includes a 2-car carport, storm shelter, and a storage barn, providing plenty of room for parking, storage, and outdoor needs. An added bonus is a second potential homesite on the property with septic system and water already in place, offering excellent possibilities for future expansion or additional residence. Located in the Corner School District, this property combines space, functionality, and opportunity in a convenient location. A great option for those looking for room to grow! County living with easy commute to Birmingham!

19. 2021-02-11
    soldstatus $64,000
20. 1990-04-19
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,354
• − Management: −$1,354
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$3,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$747
• After-tax cash flow: $445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Graysville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #19807

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,674

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.99%
• Current HPI: 260.41
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1600.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $170,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $185,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-13 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $189,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records