24 Hawk Dr · Burnside, KY 42519

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A beautiful mountain view at Lake Cumberland Burnside KY Dixie bend area 2 bedroom could be 3 has family room living room eat in kitchen 1 bath utility area screen back porch. Handicap deck and entrance Detached garage and 2 out buildings. All on 3 lots

Key facts

• Screen back porch
• 2 out buildings
• Mountain view

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEW
• SCREEN BACK PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• 2 OUT BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.0% in Burnside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $129k implies a 269% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.78%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $59,434
• Equity at exit: $74,621

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $154,436
• Equity at exit: $130,058

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42519

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,526 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $362/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $129,000 Active 254-char remark
17. 2019-12-20
    soldstatus $35,000
18. 2018-12-13
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $362 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$748/yr (+$62/mo · 206.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$362
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,465
• − Management: −$1,465
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,392
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$814
• After-tax cash flow: $4,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County
• NCES district ID: 2104950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 39.69/100
• National rank: #3906
• State rank: #17 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burnside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,800

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,414 people
• By 2030: 65,828 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 65,972 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 65,108 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 61,647 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 53,613 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.9% · R 82.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -55.4pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+60.5 2008: R+55.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Current HPI: 358.2137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+268.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $129,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $362 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.