16457 Hill Country Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2001 0.40 ac lot Est $165k · 8% over $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME! You don’t have to spend a fortune to have a nice home. Must see, this thoughtfully refreshed 3/2/2 on an impressive 17,424 sf lot! Backyard fully fenced. Laminate flooring throughout. Granite counters tops in kitchen and bathrooms. Washer and dryer included. Spacious primary bedroom features a large closet and bathroom with double sinks, stand up shower and an oversized corner soaking tub. This community provides the perfect balance of peaceful country living and modern-day convenience, making it highly desirable for those seeking both tranquility and accessibility. There is a park and playground behind the community fire station. LOW tax rate. Quick access to I-45 and 59.

Key facts

• Park and playground
• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• BACKYARD FULLY FENCED
• GRANITE COUNTERS TOPS
• PARK AND PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by IMC Property MGMT; Annual association fee of $440

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2001; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced backyard; Porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17 x 14); Bedroom on first floor (12 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (12 x 12); Dining room on first floor (11 x 8); Living room on first floor (18 x 13)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer listed as appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,312
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16535 Bunny Hill Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$155,000	$115	91
16524 Desert Star Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$155,000	$115	89
16540 Desert Star Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	7mo	$145,900	$109	89
16316 Lone Corral Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$179,999	$134	87
16517 Leafy Meadow Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$165,000	$123	84
16530 Leafy Meadow Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$165,000	$123	83
16327 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$189,000	$141	80
16263 Kanani Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$164,900	$123	76
16092 Nikita Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$175,000	$130	76
16337 Lone Corral Ct	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$165,000	$123	75
16237 Sunny Morning Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$194,900	$145	72
16105 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$119	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,122
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $28,078
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,052/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $416	+0% $365	+5% $314	+10% $264
Rent	-10% $206	-5% $286	+0% $365	+5% $444	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $411	base $365	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	44d	1	0.71mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	25d	1	0.83mi
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	2d	13	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,000 Pending 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,000 Pending 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Pending 8 DOM
5. 2026-05-23
   listed $179,000 Active
6. 2026-03-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,224/yr (+$102/mo · 59.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,052
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $1,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$388
• After-tax cash flow: $3,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,052 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.