Is 4170 Needles Hwy #55 in Needles, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.1% cap rate and $-341/mo modeled cash flow at a $189,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 4170 Needles Hwy #55?

The modeled cap rate is 4.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,222/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 29.45

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.2/30.0
Appreciation +5.4/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
Schools +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -2.6

$189,000

4170 Needles Hwy #55 · Needles, CA 92363

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 190 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1985 Good condition 2,900 sqft lot $179/sqft · 65% below area

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! Beautiful park model in the impressive gate guarded community of The Palms River Resort. This one comes turnkey, just bring your toothbrush and move on in. Two spacious bedrooms & two full bathrooms. Huge back deck & private hot tub perfect for relaxing after a day on the river. The community is amazing! Two pools plus a kiddie pool and two Jacuzzi's. Boat launch, sandy beach, dock, clubhouse, store, basketball court, fitness center, game room with pool table, shuffleboard & so much more! Be sure and stop in to see this one. Very easy to show.

Key facts

Hot tub
Huge back deck
Kiddie pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (26.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (35.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $122k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#492 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Needles Middle (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #419 of 498 statewide, top 85%, 192 students, 80% FRL).
Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $122,207 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 4.13%
Cash-on-cash: -7.73%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $540,000
List price: $189,000
Delta: -65.00%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4170 Needles Hwy #166	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+17%)	0mo	$750,000	$605	70
9530 S Evans Ln	1.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,307 (+24%)	2mo	$330,000	$252	33
3520 Needles Hwy #5	1.10mi	2/2.0	752 (-29%)	12mo	$150,000	$199	30
3390 Needles Hwy	1.56mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	37mo	$1,065,000	$924	30
9899 S Dike Rd	1.23mi	2/2.0	944 (-11%)	53mo	$960,000	$1,017	27
9879 S Dike Rd	1.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+9%)	24mo	$800,000	$694	25
9643 Evans Ln	1.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	942 (-11%)	55mo	$220,000	$234	18
3610 Riverview Ter	0.95mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+17%)	38mo	$1,250,000	$1,008	15
756 E Cameron Ln	1.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+30%)	40mo	$271,900	$199	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -4.3%
Equity multiple: 0.77×
Total profit: $-12,114
Equity at exit: $70,939

10-year hold

IRR: 0.7%
Equity multiple: 1.09×
Total profit: $4,708
Equity at exit: $99,451

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 1 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $196,000 ($165/sqft)
Median days on market: 48 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +209.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92363

Home prices YoY: 0.6%
Active inventory: 166
Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,222 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$991
Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
Insurance: −$79
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $139,700

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-210	-5% $-275	+0% $-341	+5% $-406	+10% $-471
Rent	-10% $-437	-5% $-389	+0% $-341	+5% $-292	+10% $-244
Rate	-1.0pp $-246	-0.5pp $-293	base $-341	+0.5pp $-390	+1.0pp $-439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $47,250
Closing costs: $5,670
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $189,000 Active 190 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $189,000 Active 189 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $189,000 Active 188 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $189,000 Active 187 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $189,000 Active 186 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $189,000 Active 185 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $189,000 Active 182 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $189,000 Active 181 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $189,000 Active 180 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $189,000 Active 178 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $189,000 Active 176 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $189,000 Active 174 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $189,000 Active 173 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $189,000 Active 172 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $189,000 Active 169 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $189,000 Active 167 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $189,000 Active 166 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $189,000 Active 165 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $189,000 Active 164 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $189,000 Active 163 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $189,000 Active 162 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $189,000 Active 161 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $189,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $189,000 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $189,000 Active 158 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $189,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $189,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $189,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $189,000 Active 154 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $189,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $189,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $189,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $189,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $189,000 Active 149 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $189,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $189,000 Active 147 DOM
2026-06-25

days on market $189,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $189,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $189,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-06-19

days on market $189,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $189,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $189,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $189,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $189,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $189,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $189,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $189,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $189,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $189,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $189,000 Active 128 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $14,665
− Mortgage interest: −$10,587
− Property taxes: −$2,835
− Insurance: −$945
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
− Management: −$1,173
− Depreciation: −$5,498
Taxable loss: −$7,547

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,811
After-tax cash flow: $-2,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,280–$15,840 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with a turnkey setup, ready for immediate occupancy. A few cosmetic updates can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's value. ↑
Both Replace the small palm tree with a more attractive plant — A more attractive plant can improve the home's curb appeal and rental value. ↑
Both Clean and organize the back deck — A clean and organized deck can enhance the home's resale and rental value. ↑
Both Install a new hot tub cover — A new hot tub cover can protect the hot tub and improve the home's curb appeal and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 15/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vista Colorado Elementary Middle Needles Middle F CA #419/498 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Needles High F CA #1,064/1,170 Nat'l #15,975/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Needles Unified
NCES district ID: 0626760
Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $31,795
Composite: 23.35/100
National rank: #13305
State rank: #1194 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Needles

Score: 62/100
State rank: #492
US rank: #16661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Needles, CA
County: San Bernardino · 2,300,329 people
Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Population (ZIP): 5,392
Household income: $40,226
Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 16% Native American 11% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 1.64%
Current HPI: 279.7931
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-01-30 Listed $189,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $208 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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