375 Melbourn Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$109,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Manufactured public records · 394 Days on market

Built 1988 4,199 sqft lot $376/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own your own land! This cute little house has all you need. Open kitchen flows to Dining Room which flows into the oversized livingroom. New Wood-look vinyl flooring in all rooms. 2019 Roof, both bathrooms have new vanity and hi-rise toilet. Interior freshly painted. New windows and new siding! Inspections have been done and the needed updates and repairs have been resolved. All reports are available from your Realtor. Unfurnished and no golf cart included. Enjoy 18 holes of golf for just $3 green fees in this Gated, Golf Community, located just outside of the city, and approx. 1.25 hr from either coast. Great access to Disney, Legoland, and BOK Tower, just to name a few local attractions. A Community where you enjoy $3.00 Green Fees as part of your HOA dues! In this very friendly, resident-owned community, you can be as active or inactive as you choose! Gatherings at the private Pub or the Community Room, fishing on Lake Henry, gardening, tennis, golf, shuffle board, horseshoes, swimming in the heated pool, enjoy the hot tub or the workout room! Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws. HOA INCLUDES 3 HD CABLE BOXES AND INTERNET!

Key facts

• Deeded lot
• 4,199 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FINISHED FLORIDA ROOM
• DEEDED LOT
• RESORT STYLE LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on Lake Henry with lake access; Lot approximately 0.1 acres (50 x 84)
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $376; total annual fees $4,512; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $376 (includes cable TV, internet, grounds maintenance, pool, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water); Association approval required; Association amenities: cable TV, fitness center, gated community; Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, dog park, fitness center, golf, golf carts allowed, handicap modified access, reclaimed water irrigation, pool, tennis courts, wheelchair access, street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) with limits; max pet weight 20 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available and connected; Underground utilities; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as a double-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Boat ramp (private); Fishing pier; Asphalt road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Formal dining area; Open floor plan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.30%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $8,696
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $32,712
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,284/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$376
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $500	+0% $469	+5% $438	+10% $407
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $391	+0% $469	+5% $548	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $497	base $469	+0.5pp $441	+1.0pp $412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.82mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	15d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $376 · $4,512/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepoolsecurity

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 393 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 392 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 391 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 389 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 386 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 384 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 383 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 378 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 377 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    price $109,900
15. 2026-03-06
    price $115,000
16. 2026-01-16
    price $124,900
17. 2025-09-15
    price $130,000
18. 2025-05-20
    listed $139,900 Active
19. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus $129,900
20. 2021-11-17
    soldstatus $129,900 Closed 1232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

    Own your own land! This cute little house has all you need. Open kitchen flows to Dining Room which flows into the oversized livingroom. New Wood-look vinyl flooring in all rooms. 2019 Roof, both bathrooms have new vanity and hi-rise toilet. Interior freshly painted. New windows and new siding! Inspections have been done and the needed updates and repairs have been resolved. All reports are available from your Realtor. Unfurnished and no golf cart included. Enjoy 18 holes of golf for just $3 green fees in this Gated, Golf Community, located just outside of the city, and approx. 1.25 hr from either coast. Great access to Disney, Legoland, and BOK Tower, just to name a few local attractions. A Community where you enjoy $3.00 Green Fees as part of your HOA dues! In this very friendly, resident-owned community, you can be as active or inactive as you choose! Gatherings at the private Pub or the Community Room, fishing on Lake Henry, gardening, tennis, golf, shuffle board, horseshoes, swimming in the heated pool, enjoy the hot tub or the workout room! Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws. HOA INCLUDES 3 HD CABLE BOXES AND INTERNET!

21. 2021-09-19
    status Pending 1232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

    Own your own land! This cute little house has all you need. Open kitchen flows to Dining Room which flows into the oversized livingroom. New Wood-look vinyl flooring in all rooms. 2019 Roof, both bathrooms have new vanity and hi-rise toilet. Interior freshly painted. New windows and new siding! Inspections have been done and the needed updates and repairs have been resolved. All reports are available from your Realtor. Unfurnished and no golf cart included. Enjoy 18 holes of golf for just $3 green fees in this Gated, Golf Community, located just outside of the city, and approx. 1.25 hr from either coast. Great access to Disney, Legoland, and BOK Tower, just to name a few local attractions. A Community where you enjoy $3.00 Green Fees as part of your HOA dues! In this very friendly, resident-owned community, you can be as active or inactive as you choose! Gatherings at the private Pub or the Community Room, fishing on Lake Henry, gardening, tennis, golf, shuffle board, horseshoes, swimming in the heated pool, enjoy the hot tub or the workout room! Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws. HOA INCLUDES 3 HD CABLE BOXES AND INTERNET!

22. 2021-09-18
    listed $129,900 Active 1232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

    Own your own land! This cute little house has all you need. Open kitchen flows to Dining Room which flows into the oversized livingroom. New Wood-look vinyl flooring in all rooms. 2019 Roof, both bathrooms have new vanity and hi-rise toilet. Interior freshly painted. New windows and new siding! Inspections have been done and the needed updates and repairs have been resolved. All reports are available from your Realtor. Unfurnished and no golf cart included. Enjoy 18 holes of golf for just $3 green fees in this Gated, Golf Community, located just outside of the city, and approx. 1.25 hr from either coast. Great access to Disney, Legoland, and BOK Tower, just to name a few local attractions. A Community where you enjoy $3.00 Green Fees as part of your HOA dues! In this very friendly, resident-owned community, you can be as active or inactive as you choose! Gatherings at the private Pub or the Community Room, fishing on Lake Henry, gardening, tennis, golf, shuffle board, horseshoes, swimming in the heated pool, enjoy the hot tub or the workout room! Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws. HOA INCLUDES 3 HD CABLE BOXES AND INTERNET!

23. 1994-07-29
    soldstatus $44,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,284
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − HOA: −$4,512
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $4,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $4,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+147.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-20 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2021-11-17 Sold (MLS) $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-18 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $44,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,284 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.