13349 Mason St · Fredericksburg, VA 22580

$369,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2008 0.51 ac lot Est $358k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this immaculate and well cared for home on a half acre in the country. No HOA! This house is move in ready and is just waiting for your personal touches to make it your new home. Nice spacious bedrooms all have good sized closets. Large 12' x 12' deck off the back is a great space for cooking out and entertaining, and if you get too chilly out on the deck turn on the gas fireplace in the living room and warm yourself up. Dishwasher and HVAC are 2 yrs old, hot water heater is 1 yr old and the driveway was resurfaced 2 yrs ago. This house is located 15 minutes from I-95 and only 10 minutes to the VRE making it a great location for DC commuters. Shed has power. Some websites have this property as being on the market for over 240 days. They are including the time the property was "Temp Off Market". It was Temp Off Market due to the seller's new home having lengthy construction delays. It was supposed to be finished in November - December and is just now being finished.

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2008

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage with 1 space
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Bottled gas hot water
• Home design: Detached home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Detached structure; No tidal water on the lot; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; One bedroom on the first lower level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom on the first lower level; Two full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Fully finished basement; One fireplace; Multiple access exits (2+)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (38.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 466 students, 76% FRL); Caroline Middle (math 36% / reading 67%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 973 students, 75% FRL); Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 72% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,186 (38.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,844
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13332 Julien	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-5%)	9mo	$340,000	$274	81
13378 Mason St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-5%)	10mo	$345,000	$278	80
13479 Kennedy St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	22mo	$271,000	$226	55
5269 Macedonia Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+7%)	3mo	$463,900	$331	53
5487 Caroline Village Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+9%)	22mo	$316,000	$222	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $173,955
• Equity at exit: $333,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $533,438
• Equity at exit: $718,634

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22580

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,656/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $294,076

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-325	+0% $-429	+5% $-534	+10% $-639
Rent	-10% $-609	-5% $-519	+0% $-429	+5% $-339	+10% $-249
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-335	base $-429	+0.5pp $-525	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on market $369,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $379,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,033 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,378/yr (+$115/mo · 83.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$1,656
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$11,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,876
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 207,206
• Population (ZIP): 4,956

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 384.3319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+76.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Coming Soon $379,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-25 Sold (MLS) $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-05 Price Changed $314,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-05 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-26 Coming Soon $309,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-01-16 Sold (MLS) $191,500 MRIS
• 2008-12-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-12-09 Price Changed $199,000 MRIS
• 2008-10-22 Price Changed $205,000 MRIS
• 2008-09-09 Listed $215,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,656 · +23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.