1201 Mill St · Gainesville, TX 76240

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 989 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 272 Days on market

Built 1940 $147/sqft · 6% above area Est $137k · 6% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Taking offers, minimum offer $140000. 1201 Mill St. , Gainesville, TX obo. Needs work. A great amount of work has been done to the house. List is provided on request. New foundation, flooring, windows, Siding, Carport, plumbing, sheetrock, insulation , and more. Natural Gas is in the master bedroom, living room, and kitchen. Atmos within the last few weeks replaced all gas lines. Electric is with Reliant Electric. Family home. Built in 1940. 5001 Square feet lot size. Our city has luscious grass, and trees, and great water, the best that I have ever tasted.

Key facts

• New carport
• New plumbing
• New siding

Tags

• NEW FOUNDATION
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW SIDING
• NEW CARPORT
• NEW PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.6% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#602 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gainesville ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #606 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W E Chalmers El (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 716 students, 67% FRL); Gainesville J H (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 426 students, 71% FRL); Gainesville H S (math 42% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 863 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Cooke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,330
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 5.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
901 W Star St	0.10mi	2/1.0	957 (-3%)	5mo	$195,000	$204	82
1704 Throckmorton St	0.41mi	2/1.0	960 (-3%)	6mo	$99,999	$104	68
113 E Cummings St	0.59mi	2/1.0	962 (-3%)	4mo	$134,500	$140	60
1820 Mill St	0.52mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,028 (+4%)	12mo	$185,000	$180	52
605 N Denton St	0.66mi	2/1.0	949 (-4%)	21mo	$149,900	$158	41
1009 Moran St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,118 (+13%)	19mo	$138,500	$124	38
531 N Dixon St N	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+15%)	12mo	$99,500	$88	33
527 N Dixon St N	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+15%)	12mo	$120,000	$106	33
709 N Commerce St	0.47mi	2/1.0	840 (-15%)	23mo	$165,000	$196	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,401
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,382
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76240

• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,022/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $216	+0% $175	+5% $134	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $121	+0% $175	+5% $229	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $212	base $175	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1610 Elizabeth St Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-08-27
   listed $145,000 Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Taking offers, minimum offer $140000. 1201 Mill St. , Gainesville, TX obo. Needs work. A great amount of work has been done to the house. List is provided on request. New foundation, flooring, windows, Siding, Carport, plumbing, sheetrock, insulation , and more. Natural Gas is in the master bedroom, living room, and kitchen. Atmos within the last few weeks replaced all gas lines. Electric is with Reliant Electric. Family home. Built in 1940. 5001 Square feet lot size. Our city has luscious grass, and trees, and great water, the best that I have ever tasted.

2. 2002-03-18
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,632/yr (+$136/mo · 159.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,022
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$71
• After-tax cash flow: $2,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gainesville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820220
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,772
• Composite: 26.27/100
• National rank: #7252
• State rank: #606 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #602
• US rank: #11445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, TX
• County: Cooke County · 29,419 people
• City population: 29,419
• Metro: Gainesville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,419
• Household income: $71,502
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Cooke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,965 people
• By 2030: 39,974 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 39,772 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 39,258 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 37,262 · -6.8%
• By 2100: 33,363 · -16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cooke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.2% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.7pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+68.1 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+58.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.63%
• Current HPI: 247.3822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gainesville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-27 Listed $145,000 Fizber.com
• 2002-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,022 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.