19 Nature Way · Kiamesha Lake, NY 12751

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1930 6,534 sqft lot $148/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to Kiamesha Lake Estates, a charming seasonal community in the heart of the Catskills, open annually from approximately May 1st through October 31st. Enjoy carefree summer living with access to a community in-ground pool and low annual maintenance fees that include private road maintenance, water, trash pickup, lawn care, and pool access. Set on a beautifully landscaped 0.15-acre lot, 19 Nature Way offers a unique opportunity with two separate bungalow units under one roof. Surrounded by mature trees, flowering shrubs, grapevines, and fruit-bearing plants including raspberries, currants, and apple trees, the property provides a peaceful retreat with plenty of room to relax and enjoy

Key facts

• Grapevines
• Flowering shrubs
• Landscaped lot

Tags

• COMMUNITY IN-GROUND POOL
• LANDSCAPED LOT
• TWO SEPARATE BUNGALOW UNITS
• MATURE TREES
• FLOWERING SHRUBS
• GRAPEVINES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Kiamesha Lake Estates association; Association amenities include parking and pool; Monthly association fee of $148; Association fee covers common area maintenance, pool service, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot (no carport)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service by NYSEG; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Actual property condition
• Construction: Block foundation; Block, frame and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Garden; Near shops; Sloped lot; Shed(s); Community in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Freezer; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs; Additional first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Linoleum; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning units; No central heating listed
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the ground floor; First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet; Deck; Partial unfinished walk-out basement; Attic scuttle access; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L Cooke School (592 students, 71% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $125k implies a 279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.24%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $131,929
• Equity at exit: $100,858

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.37×
• Total profit: $328,003
• Equity at exit: $206,101

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12751

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,127/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $1,174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 53%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,794
Total (2 units)			$2,793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $125,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,127 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,127 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,127
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $12,988
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,117
• After-tax cash flow: $10,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kiamesha Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kiamesha Lake, NY
• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 1,340

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Danish 9% Estonian 8%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · German/W. Germanic 43% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.68%
• Current HPI: 397.7278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1370.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1981-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,127 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.