4200 Sugarcreek Dr · Bellbrook, OH 45305

$285,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1959 0.45 ac lot $201/sqft · at area comps Est $275k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence set on nearly half an acre in desirable Bellbrook. Ideally located near shopping, dining, grocery stores, and convenient highway access—as well as the quaint downtown area—this home offers both comfort and accessibility for everyday living. This single-story full brick home blends timeless appeal with practical design, featuring two spacious living areas perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The full bathroom includes double sinks for added convenience, complemented by an additional half bath. A two-car attached garage provides ample storage and functionality. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a beautifully si

Key facts

• Flat backyard
• Covered patio
• Half an acre

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• COVERED PATIO
• FLAT BACKYARD
• NEWER BACKYARD AWNING
• UPDATED KITCHEN FAUCET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Storm sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-story; Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Patio; Storage; Shed(s); Irregular lot shape; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level (11 x 12); Bedroom on main level (10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Galley kitchen; Pantry; High-speed internet available; Vinyl windows; Wood-burning fireplace (one)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-890/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.2% in Bellbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#134 in OH, #1,892 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bellbrook-Sugarcreek Local (suburban): math 79% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #45 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 797 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (148 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $239,363 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,133
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 3.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4200 Sugarcreek Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,416 (0%)	0mo	$288,000	$203	100
1796 N Belleview Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,419 (+0%)	1mo	$275,500	$194	83
1860 Bledsoe Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-12%)	2mo	$319,000	$256	71
4184 Wood Acre Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,335 (-6%)	7mo	$264,500	$198	70
1700 Kensington Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+3%)	1mo	$300,000	$205	69
1900 N Belleview Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+13%)	3mo	$305,000	$191	69
4454 Hillcrest Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,421 (+0%)	0mo	$256,000	$180	69
4264 Bellemead Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,416 (0%)	0mo	$300,000	$212	65
1813 Bledsoe Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+14%)	1mo	$275,000	$170	64
4274 N Apple Branch Dr Unit 54-302	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,322 (-7%)	5mo	$215,000	$163	50
4330 Bellemead Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,255 (-11%)	4mo	$288,000	$229	46
2213 S Lakeman Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+13%)	0mo	$340,000	$213	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,874
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,249
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45305

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,222/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,488

Max offer price $271,894

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Unit NA Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,725	$1.65	3d	1	0.60mi
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,850	$1.73	23d	1	0.60mi
4208 Bellemead Dr Bellbrook, OH	3.0	1.5	1416	$1,995	$1.41	3d	1	0.81mi
33 S Main St Unit 35 Bellbrook, OH	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 990-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $285,000 Active 990-char remark
3. 2006-07-03
   soldstatus $140,000
4. 2002-07-11
   soldstatus $125,000
5. 1996-10-07
   soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,222 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,334 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,222
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,386
• After-tax cash flow: $496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellbrook-Sugarcreek Local
• NCES district ID: 3904727
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $87,482
• Composite: 70.01/100
• National rank: #280
• State rank: #45 of 656 in OH

Livability — Bellbrook

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #1892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellbrook, OH
• County: Greene · 199,376 people
• City population: 11,597
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH
• Population (ZIP): 11,597
• Household income: $119,129
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 6.3

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,301 people
• By 2030: 171,840 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 171,408 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 167,806 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 154,430 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 138,669 · -18.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.5% · R 59.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.57%
• Current HPI: 262.7851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+171.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $288,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $285,000 Dayton MLS
• 2006-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,222 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.