10134 Bretton Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1960 6,525 sqft lot $94/sqft · 9% below area Est $182k · 9% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Loved by the same family since 1988, this home is ready for its next chapter. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a spacious den, and a covered back patio/sunroom ideal for gatherings and everyday living. The original garage conversion adds a fourth bedroom, while original wood floors lie beneath the carpet, ready to be restored to their natural beauty. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bath for added comfort and convenience. With a little TLC, this property presents a great investment opportunity or is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal touch and make it their own.

Key facts

• Original wood floors
• Covered back patio
• Private ensuite bath

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• ORIGINAL GARAGE CONVERSION
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,849/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.54%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,948
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -9.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10502 Hollyglen Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,719 (-2%)	4mo	$182,900	$106	71
7203 Gore Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,609 (-9%)	2mo	$159,000	$99	64
5618 Briarwick Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-2%)	5mo	$180,000	$104	63
7302 Marilyn Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (+3%)	0mo	$220,000	$121	63
10618 Wolbrook St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-6%)	4mo	$210,000	$126	59
9811 Degas Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+3%)	2mo	$260,000	$144	59
10427 Envoy St	0.31mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,629 (-7%)	10mo	$185,900	$114	58
7227 Colton St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-14%)	0mo	$214,000	$142	54
10313 E Blades St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,578 (-10%)	5mo	$175,000	$111	50
10513 Wolbrook St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-11%)	10mo	$242,500	$155	49
7802 Laurel Gem Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,605 (-9%)	7mo	$224,990	$140	49
5813 Mayle St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,501 (-15%)	10mo	$184,999	$123	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $88,778
• Equity at exit: $132,705

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $235,822
• Equity at exit: $270,756

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $337	+0% $290	+5% $244	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $217	+0% $290	+5% $363	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $332	base $290	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	0.09mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	22d	1	0.39mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	0.54mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	0.54mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	0.55mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	15d	1	0.66mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	0d	1	0.86mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.86mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,675	$1.04	1d	1	0.89mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	45d	1	0.90mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	45d	1	0.90mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	0.90mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	9d	1	0.90mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	45d	1	0.96mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	1.02mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	1.05mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	1.09mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	26d	1	1.21mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-03-17
    price $180,000 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Loved by the same family since 1988, this home is ready for its next chapter. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a spacious den, and a covered back patio/sunroom ideal for gatherings and everyday living. The original garage conversion adds a fourth bedroom, while original wood floors lie beneath the carpet, ready to be restored to their natural beauty. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bath for added comfort and convenience. With a little TLC, this property presents a great investment opportunity or is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal touch and make it their own.

14. 2026-02-17
    listed $210,000 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Loved by the same family since 1988, this home is ready for its next chapter. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a spacious den, and a covered back patio/sunroom ideal for gatherings and everyday living. The original garage conversion adds a fourth bedroom, while original wood floors lie beneath the carpet, ready to be restored to their natural beauty. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bath for added comfort and convenience. With a little TLC, this property presents a great investment opportunity or is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal touch and make it their own.

15. 1988-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,835 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $3,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 1988-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,835 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.