11625 Mehl Ave · Black Jack, MO 63033

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1966 8,158 sqft lot $138/sqft · 17% below area Est $192k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!!! NEW!! THE SELLER'S OF THIS PROPERTRY WILL PAY UP TO $5,000 IN CLOSING COSTS AND PRE-PAIDS AT CLOSING!! Three bedrooms, two full baths, central air, gas stove, refrigerator, hardwood floors, unfinished basement with washer/dryer hook ups. 1 car garage, fenced back yard with patio.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Unfinished basement
• Gas stove

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR
• GAS STOVE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• FENCED BACK YARD
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.06%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,388
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -16.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4384 Remus Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-2%)	2mo	$209,900	$186	88
4377 Varano Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,155 (0%)	2mo	$150,000	$130	82
4950 Patricia Ridge Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,124 (-3%)	4mo	$177,500	$158	79
11565 Mehl Ave	0.07mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (+10%)	4mo	$81,000	$64	70
4394 Satiris Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+13%)	0mo	$235,000	$181	69
11882 Nero Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,080 (-6%)	3mo	$209,900	$194	67
11879 Galba Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-6%)	0mo	$159,900	$146	66
11678 Galba Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+12%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	66
4333 Caracalla Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,271 (+10%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	65
4428 Papal Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+14%)	6mo	$129,900	$99	64
12415 Danube Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,124 (-3%)	6mo	$150,000	$133	57
29 Brixworth Ct	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,280 (+11%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $106,845
• Equity at exit: $144,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.24×
• Total profit: $323,957
• Equity at exit: $310,651

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,280/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	0.28mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	43d	3	0.29mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	0.41mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	0.50mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	1d	17	0.80mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	1d	1	0.80mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	1.07mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	43d	1	1.24mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	23d	1	1.36mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	7d	1	1.43mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	43d	1	1.47mi
1502 Summer Run Dr #108 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!!! NEW!! THE SELLER'S OF THIS PROPERTRY WILL PAY UP TO $5,000 IN CLOSING COSTS AND PRE-PAIDS AT CLOSING!! Three bedrooms, two full baths, central air, gas stove, refrigerator, hardwood floors, unfinished basement with washer/dryer hook ups. 1 car garage, fenced back yard with patio.

2. 2026-04-22
   price $159,900 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!!! NEW!! THE SELLER'S OF THIS PROPERTRY WILL PAY UP TO $5,000 IN CLOSING COSTS AND PRE-PAIDS AT CLOSING!! Three bedrooms, two full baths, central air, gas stove, refrigerator, hardwood floors, unfinished basement with washer/dryer hook ups. 1 car garage, fenced back yard with patio.

3. 2026-03-05
   price $179,900 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!!! NEW!! THE SELLER'S OF THIS PROPERTRY WILL PAY UP TO $5,000 IN CLOSING COSTS AND PRE-PAIDS AT CLOSING!! Three bedrooms, two full baths, central air, gas stove, refrigerator, hardwood floors, unfinished basement with washer/dryer hook ups. 1 car garage, fenced back yard with patio.

4. 2026-02-18
   listed $189,900 Active 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!!! NEW!! THE SELLER'S OF THIS PROPERTRY WILL PAY UP TO $5,000 IN CLOSING COSTS AND PRE-PAIDS AT CLOSING!! Three bedrooms, two full baths, central air, gas stove, refrigerator, hardwood floors, unfinished basement with washer/dryer hook ups. 1 car garage, fenced back yard with patio.

5. 2026-02-18
   historical $189,900 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!!! NEW!! THE SELLER'S OF THIS PROPERTRY WILL PAY UP TO $5,000 IN CLOSING COSTS AND PRE-PAIDS AT CLOSING!! Three bedrooms, two full baths, central air, gas stove, refrigerator, hardwood floors, unfinished basement with washer/dryer hook ups. 1 car garage, fenced back yard with patio.

6. 2025-03-06
   historical $1,150
7. 2024-12-28
   price $1,150
8. 2024-12-05
   historical $1,350
9. 2024-12-05
   listed $1,350
10. 2024-10-11
    historical $1,350
11. 2024-10-11
    listed $1,350
12. 2024-10-10
    listed $1,350
13. 1989-10-01
    soldstatus
14. 1982-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,280
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$73
• After-tax cash flow: $2,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+11744.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Coming Soon $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Rental Removed $1,150 MARIS
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $1,150 MARIS
• 2024-12-05 Rental Removed $1,350 MARIS
• 2024-12-05 Listed for Rent $1,350 MARIS
• 2024-10-11 Rental Removed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-11 Listed for Rent $1,350 MARIS
• 2024-10-10 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 1989-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,280 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.