127 SE 16th Ave Unit S-105 · Gainesville, FL 32601

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 875 sqft · Condo · 155 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition $275/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner financing is available! Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo in Treehouse Village. This property is conveniently located near the University of Florida, UF Health Shands Hospital, the VA Hospital, and Downtown. The condo features two spacious bedrooms, each with recently installed luxury vinyl flooring and his-and-her closets, as well as its own bathroom. The main living area includes a kitchen with an updated stove and dishwasher that overlooks the dining area and living room. Step out onto the balcony to enjoy views of a wooded area, the pool, and the clubhouse. The community offers two swimming pools, a fitness center, and convenient access to the UF bus line.

Key facts

• Updated dishwasher
• His and her closets
• Wooded area views

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• HIS AND HER CLOSETS
• UPDATED STOVE
• UPDATED DISHWASHER
• WOODED AREA VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-642/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (6.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Idylwild Elementary School (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 533 students, 78% FRL); Abraham Lincoln Middle School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 709 students, 55% FRL); Eastside High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,220 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,321/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 3429% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-19,455
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,479
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32601

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $111,262

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-12	+0% $-53	+5% $-95	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-158	-5% $-106	+0% $-53	+5% $-1	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-23	base $-53	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-01-17
    listed $119,000 Active 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Owner financing is available! Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo in Treehouse Village. This property is conveniently located near the University of Florida, UF Health Shands Hospital, the VA Hospital, and Downtown. The condo features two spacious bedrooms, each with recently installed luxury vinyl flooring and his-and-her closets, as well as its own bathroom. The main living area includes a kitchen with an updated stove and dishwasher that overlooks the dining area and living room. Step out onto the balcony to enjoy views of a wooded area, the pool, and the clubhouse. The community offers two swimming pools, a fitness center, and convenient access to the UF bus line.

19. 2025-12-08
    historical
20. 2025-09-01
    status Active
21. 2025-08-31
    historical
22. 2025-08-29
    price $119,000
23. 2025-07-25
    price $123,500
24. 2025-06-06
    price $127,500
25. 2025-05-04
    price $129,000
26. 2025-03-02
    listed $132,000 Active
27. 2024-03-20
    status Pending
28. 2024-03-19
    historical
29. 2024-03-11
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$2,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$597
• After-tax cash flow: $-45/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready 2-bedroom 2-bathroom condo in Treehouse Village is in good condition with recent updates. It needs some cosmetic updates to the kitchen and paint to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and worn
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen flooring — luxury vinyl flooring is durable and adds value
• Both landscape and enhance curb appeal — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen flooring — luxury vinyl flooring is durable and adds value ↑
• Both landscape and enhance curb appeal — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,180
• Household income: $30,352
• Rent vs Own: 76.0% rent · 24.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3429.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.81%
• Current HPI: 327.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $123,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $127,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-04 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-02 Listed $132,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-11 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid