16 Oak St · Valley Stream, NY 11581

$200,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,916 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1996 ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This is a 2 Bedroom unit which is duplex. This is a brand new house with all brand new appliances. First Floor has Kitchen, Dining and Living room and the 2nd floor has 2 Bedroom and a Bathroom. Parking and Internet is included. Tenant is responsible for Gas & amp; Electric. Near Gibson LIRR station. Private Entrance. Tenant responsible for Gas & amp; Electric

Key facts

• Brand new house
• New appliances
• Private entrance

Tags

• BRAND NEW HOUSE
• NEW APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• NEAR GIBSON LIRR STATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($51k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 32.3% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Stream — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#13 in NY, #301 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Valley Stream Central High School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #78 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,229/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($142k/yr) (locally 346% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.76%
• DSCR: 5.13
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $239,898
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.00×
• Total profit: $559,934
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11581

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,518
• Net cashflow: $4,273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,820

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 36%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$7,228
Total (2 units)			$7,229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Alsop St Unit 2 Valley Stream, NY	3.0	1.0	2340	$3,300	$1.41	1d	1	0.14mi
375 Cochran Pl Unit 2 Valley Stream, NY	3.0	1.0	2340	$3,500	$1.50	25d	1	0.50mi
1463 Hewlett Ave Hewlett, NY	4.0	2.0	2662	$6,700	$2.52	15d	1	0.83mi
69 Sunset Ave Lynbrook, NY	3.0	2.5	2200	$3,950	$1.80	1d	1	0.94mi
336 Scranton Ave Unit 1 Lynbrook, NY	5.0	2.5	2983	$3,990	$1.34	1d	1	0.99mi
791 Longview Ave Valley Stream, NY	4.0	3.0	2982	$7,800	$2.62	18d	1	1.07mi
1030 Cedarhurst St Valley Stream, NY	4.0	2.0	1950	$5,799	$2.97	1d	1	1.08mi
220 Jackson Pl Hewlett, NY	4.0	2.5	2300	$5,850	$2.54	44d	1	1.20mi
559 Linda Ln Woodmere, NY	5.0	4.5	2390	$7,000	$2.93	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $200,000 Active
2. 2011-12-07
   soldstatus $442,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $86,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,940
• − Management: −$6,940
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $51,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,283
• After-tax cash flow: $38,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Stream Central High School District
• NCES district ID: 3629520
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $94,844
• Composite: 66.54/100
• National rank: #418
• State rank: #78 of 590 in NY

Livability — Valley Stream

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #301

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Stream, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 65,910
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,818
• Household income: $142,233
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 346.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 18% Asian 17% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -602.04%
• Current HPI: 285.7096
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-54.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $200,000 FSBO.com
• 2011-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $442,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $12,385 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.