49 Woodchuck Pkwy · Manchester, NJ 08759

$114,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,141 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 $100/sqft · 28% above area Est $89k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Pine Ridge at Crestwood a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand new, 2026 2 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1141.52 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Whiting, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find open-concept floor plan, vinyl floors, high ceilings, and an abundance of natural light. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, and a beautiful island with electric, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with en-suite features like dual vanities, walk-in shower. Additional bedroom provides versatility for guests, or home office. Outside you will enjoy a spacious front porch, low-maintenance landscaping, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Located in the desirable Pine Ridge at Crestwood, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities including fitness center, two clubhouses, bocce courts, and private transportation. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, major highways, parks, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Spacious front porch
• Built 2026

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 6606% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $114k implies a 551% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $107,160 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.22%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,096
• List price: $114,000
• Delta: 27.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Badger Ct	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	2mo	$85,000	$74	95
3 Arbor St	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+5%)	3mo	$55,000	$46	81
45 Beaver Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-7%)	5mo	$79,900	$76	79
301 Kenwood Ct	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+1%)	4mo	$125,000	$109	74
1104 Sycamore Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+9%)	2mo	$168,000	$135	73
15A Alpine Rd #63	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-6%)	1mo	$205,000	$191	67
7 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-6%)	1mo	$225,000	$209	66
55 Winkle Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,287 (+13%)	6mo	$280,000	$218	61
3 Amherst Rd #63	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,219 (+7%)	5mo	$250,000	$205	60
32 Winkle Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,287 (+13%)	4mo	$212,000	$165	60
3 Rutland Ct #63	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,219 (+7%)	7mo	$250,000	$205	57
23 Walkabout Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,287 (+13%)	7mo	$264,900	$206	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $15,809
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $57,979
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$142 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $617	-5% $577	+0% $538	+5% $498	+10% $459
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $472	+0% $538	+5% $604	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $595	-0.5pp $567	base $538	+0.5pp $508	+1.0pp $478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	13d	1	0.01mi
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.02mi
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	11d	1	0.03mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-05-02
   listed $1,700
8. 2026-03-11
   listed $114,000 Active 1398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1398 chars)

   55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Pine Ridge at Crestwood a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand new, 2026 2 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1141.52 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Whiting, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find open-concept floor plan, vinyl floors, high ceilings, and an abundance of natural light. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, and a beautiful island with electric, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with en-suite features like dual vanities, walk-in shower. Additional bedroom provides versatility for guests, or home office. Outside you will enjoy a spacious front porch, low-maintenance landscaping, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Located in the desirable Pine Ridge at Crestwood, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities including fitness center, two clubhouses, bocce courts, and private transportation. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, major highways, parks, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!

9. 2009-04-22
   listed $13,500
10. 2004-11-16
    soldstatus $17,500
11. 2004-07-22
    listed $17,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable income: $4,933
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $5,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-90.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed for Rent $1,700 ZUMPER1
• 2026-03-11 Listed $114,000 Zillow
• 2009-04-22 Listed $13,500 MOMLS
• 2004-11-16 Sold (MLS) $17,500 MOMLS
• 2004-07-22 Listed $17,900 MOMLS