Birch Plan · Tickfaw, LA 70466

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily · 325 Days on market

↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Birch is one of our one-story floorplans featured in Rivers Edge, a new home community in Tickfaw, Louisiana. Inside this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, you'll find 1,276 square feet of enjoyable living. Once you walk into this home, you'll see two bedrooms along with the guest bathroom. Walking down the foyer, you'll then reach the laundry room, as well as the open concept living space, starting with the kitchen. The kitchen offers shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets in the kitchens. The chef in your family will also enjoy the stainless-steel Frigidaire appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, single basin undermount sink. and 3 cm granite throughout. The kitchen also houses a pantry, and the separate laundry room is located on the other side, creating easy access to everything. The dining room is adjacent to the kitchen, and the living room is situated nearby. This smart layout ensures that anyone in either space can always be part of the action, regardless of their location. Each bedroom is equipped with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a space for entertainment, storage, hosting guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can count on feeling comfortable and content. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the home and has its own en suite. The primary bathroom features a double vanity with a tub/shower combo, large walk-in closet, separate linen closet, and a separate water closet. Get in touch with us now and schedule

Key facts

• One story floorplans
• Garage
• Listed 325 days

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLANS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GOOSENECK PULLDOWN FAUCETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SINGLE BASIN UNDERMOUNT SINK

🏗️ New construction. The $219,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $245,809.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#203 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Park Magnet (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #597 of 646 statewide, top 95%, 519 students, 88% FRL); Lucille Nesom Memorial (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #534 of 646 statewide, top 83%, 549 students, 83% FRL); Independence High Magnet (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #224 of 265 statewide, top 86%, 570 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $166,998 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.62%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,809
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -10.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10149 Crystal Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+5%)	3mo	$234,900	$175	89
10198 Pearl Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+0%)	7mo	$221,900	$173	88
10173 Crystal Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+5%)	12mo	$239,900	$179	82
10162 Crystal Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+5%)	12mo	$239,900	$179	82
10138 Crystal Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+5%)	10mo	$238,900	$178	78
10178 Crystal Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,349 (+6%)	9mo	$238,900	$177	76
10196 Crystal Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,349 (+6%)	8mo	$229,900	$170	76
10125 Crystal Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+5%)	7mo	$243,795	$182	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $13,885
• Equity at exit: $119,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $73,230
• Equity at exit: $191,417

Cash invested: $68,827 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70466

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,289
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,687/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,150

Max offer price $190,902

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-210	-5% $-295	+0% $-379	+5% $-464	+10% $-549
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-445	+0% $-379	+5% $-313	+10% $-248
Rate	-1.0pp $-256	-0.5pp $-317	base $-379	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,452
• Closing costs: $7,374
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 325 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,900 Active 323 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 322 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 320 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 319 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 317 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 316 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $219,900 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 311 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,900 Active 308 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 307 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 306 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 305 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 304 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,900 Active 303 DOM
19. 2025-09-13
    price $219,900 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The Birch is one of our one-story floorplans featured in Rivers Edge, a new home community in Tickfaw, Louisiana. Inside this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, you'll find 1,276 square feet of enjoyable living. Once you walk into this home, you'll see two bedrooms along with the guest bathroom. Walking down the foyer, you'll then reach the laundry room, as well as the open concept living space, starting with the kitchen. The kitchen offers shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets in the kitchens. The chef in your family will also enjoy the stainless-steel Frigidaire appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, single basin undermount sink. and 3 cm granite throughout. The kitchen also houses a pantry, and the separate laundry room is located on the other side, creating easy access to everything. The dining room is adjacent to the kitchen, and the living room is situated nearby. This smart layout ensures that anyone in either space can always be part of the action, regardless of their location. Each bedroom is equipped with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a space for entertainment, storage, hosting guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can count on feeling comfortable and content. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the home and has its own en suite. The primary bathroom features a double vanity with a tub/shower combo, large walk-in closet, separate linen closet, and a separate water closet. Get in touch with us now and schedule

20. 2025-07-31
    listed $224,900 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The Birch is one of our one-story floorplans featured in Rivers Edge, a new home community in Tickfaw, Louisiana. Inside this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, you'll find 1,276 square feet of enjoyable living. Once you walk into this home, you'll see two bedrooms along with the guest bathroom. Walking down the foyer, you'll then reach the laundry room, as well as the open concept living space, starting with the kitchen. The kitchen offers shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets in the kitchens. The chef in your family will also enjoy the stainless-steel Frigidaire appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, single basin undermount sink. and 3 cm granite throughout. The kitchen also houses a pantry, and the separate laundry room is located on the other side, creating easy access to everything. The dining room is adjacent to the kitchen, and the living room is situated nearby. This smart layout ensures that anyone in either space can always be part of the action, regardless of their location. Each bedroom is equipped with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a space for entertainment, storage, hosting guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can count on feeling comfortable and content. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the home and has its own en suite. The primary bathroom features a double vanity with a tub/shower combo, large walk-in closet, separate linen closet, and a separate water closet. Get in touch with us now and schedule

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,769
• − Property taxes: −$3,687
• − Insurance: −$1,229
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$7,151
• Taxable loss: −$9,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Tickfaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #15825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,815

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 126.0016
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $219,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-31 Listed $224,900 Zillow