498 Prestwick Pl · Poinciana, FL 34759

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Condo public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1987 $400/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Opportunity knocks at 498 Prestwick Place! This home is priced to sell and ready for your personal touch—perfect for buyers looking to create value or secure an affordable entry into homeownership. With solid bones and a functional layout, a little TLC can go a long way. Whether you're an investor or a savvy buyer, this is your chance to transform potential into profit. Don’t miss out—opportunities like this move fast!

Key facts

• 1,703 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly HOA $400; annual fees $4,800
• HOA & community: Association of Poinciana Villages HOA (monthly fee $400); Community pool; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Attached villa; One story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a villa
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $149k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.48%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,930
• Equity at exit: $32,575

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,277
• Equity at exit: $31,393

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $519/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 Dundee Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.27mi
324 Clearwater Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,800	$1.35	3d	1	0.36mi
312 Clearwater Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,825	$1.27	23d	1	0.38mi
437 Short Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,715	$1.34	2d	1	0.49mi
375 Messina Way Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1070	$1,459	$1.36	2d	31	0.55mi
569 Pinehurst Cv Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,800	$1.29	3d	1	0.70mi
569 Pinehurst Cv Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	0.70mi
2182 Palm Tree Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1365	$1,950	$1.43	23d	1	0.95mi
822 E Flag Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$2,500	$2.05	2d	1	0.99mi
105 Alcala Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,519	$1.17	7d	1	1.09mi
571 Hunter Cir Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,500	$1.45	23d	1	1.15mi
544 Imperial Pl Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	949	$1,550	$1.63	23d	1	1.19mi
546 Imperial Pl Unit 548 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	23d	1	1.20mi
618 Royalty Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	1.23mi
526 Kilimanjaro Dr Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	23d	1	1.27mi
586 Imperial Pl Unit 588 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	962	$1,545	$1.61	10d	1	1.28mi
671 Royalty Ct Unit A Poinciana, FL	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	7d	1	1.30mi
542 Kilimanjaro Dr Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,600	$1.32	23d	1	1.33mi
San Remo Ct Poinciana, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1181	$1,443	$1.22	1d	15	1.36mi
658 Caribou Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	3d	1	1.42mi
111 Cassino Way Unit D Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,300	$1.82	23d	1	1.45mi
56 Cordona Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,650	$1.19	20d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $149,000 Active
3. 1987-12-01
   soldstatus $74,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $519 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$717/yr (+$60/mo · 138.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$519
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$295
• After-tax cash flow: $1,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+99.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $519 · +33.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.