944 Bakewell Ct #106 · Lake Mary, FL 32746

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Condo public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1986 $423/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy living! This charming, single-story, ground-floor condo offers 1,136 sq. ft. of comfortable space with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Designed for accessibility and warmth, you can relax on your peaceful private open patio. The home boasts durable carpet and tile flooring throughout. Convenience is key with a full kitchen appliance package included (Stove, Fridge, Dishwasher, Microwave), plus a dedicated laundry area complete with a Washer and Dryer. The unit includes 1 assigned parking space, and residents enjoy access to a sparkling community pool. Built in 1986, this ground-floor gem is move-in ready!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private open patio
• $423 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE OPEN PATIO
• FULL KITCHEN APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No CDD; Unit is unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total annual fees approximately $5,076
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $423 (includes grounds maintenance); Association managed by SENTRY Management; Community pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Public water available
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One story; East-facing; Entry on first floor
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 944
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (9.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#128 in FL, #1,923 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living D-.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $194k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,162 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-41,651
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-59,431
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32746

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,409/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$423
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,180

Max offer price $176,162

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
938 Framlingham Ct #206 Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	998	$1,750	$1.75	23d	1	0.02mi
937 Birmingham Ct Lake Mary, FL	3.0	2.0	1178	$2,050	$1.74	23d	1	0.10mi
1000 Regal Pointe Ter Lake Mary, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,190	$2.18	2d	21	0.36mi
163 Villa Di Este Ter #209 Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,870	$1.58	21d	1	0.57mi
420 Sun Lake Cir Lake Mary, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,290	$2.41	2d	17	0.65mi
1321 Arbor Vista Loop Lake Mary, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1096	$1,700	$1.55	23d	2	0.70mi
1321 Arbor Vista Loop Lake Mary, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1039	$1,700	$1.64	2d	2	0.70mi
114 Vista Verdi Cir #328 Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	1398	$1,600	$1.14	23d	1	0.72mi
780 Creekwater Ter Lake Mary, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,930	$2.02	23d	1	0.84mi
727 Sugar Bay Way #205 Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,650	$1.81	23d	1	0.92mi
729 Secret Harbor Ln #201 Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	947	$1,700	$1.80	23d	1	1.00mi
717 Secret Harbor Ln Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	954	$1,599	$1.68	5d	1	1.05mi
901 Beresford Way Lake Mary, FL	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,495	$1.80	12d	1	1.10mi
2520 Grassy Point Dr Lake Mary, FL	3.0	2.0	1103	$1,800	$1.63	23d	1	1.12mi
542 Queensbridge Dr Lake Mary, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,395	$1.70	23d	1	1.13mi
2516 Grassy Point Dr #200 Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	899	$2,095	$2.33	23d	1	1.15mi
2504 Grassy Point Dr #214 Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	899	$1,495	$1.66	14d	1	1.18mi
2504 Grassy Point Dr #204 Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	899	$1,895	$2.11	23d	1	1.18mi
1567 Farrindon Cir Lake Mary, FL	2.0	2.0	1234	$1,995	$1.62	23d	1	1.34mi
252 Wheelhouse Ln Lake Mary, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$3,237	$3.10	1d	12	1.35mi
451 Hamptoncrest Cir #307 Lake Mary, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,295	$1.63	5d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $423 · $5,076/yr
• Likely covers: poolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $194,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $198,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $198,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,409
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − HOA: −$5,076
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$4,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $-184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Mary

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #1923

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• City population: 46,684
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,684
• Household income: $104,775
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1929.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.09%
• Current HPI: 274.7765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+222.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $194,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $199,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $209,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $214,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $219,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $228,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Listed $229,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,409 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.