2223 S 5th St W · Missoula, MT 59801

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 464 Days on market

Built 1976 $570/mo HOA · 40% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Modern flooring
• Covered front patio
• Functional mudroom

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• MATURE TREES
• TASTEFUL BATHROOM REMODEL
• MODERN FLOORING
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• FUNCTIONAL MUDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 1.6% in Missoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#17 in MT, #2,351 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Missoula H S (urban): math 31% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #53 of 116 in MT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 773 units permitted in Missoula County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Missoula County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.90%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $12,331
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $29,335
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59801

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$570
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,028

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $334	-5% $322	+0% $310	+5% $297	+10% $285
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $253	+0% $310	+5% $366	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $318	base $310	+0.5pp $300	+1.0pp $291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $570 · $6,840/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $35,000 Active 464 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $35,000 Active 462 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 461 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 460 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 459 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 458 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 456 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $35,000 Active 455 DOM
9. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
10. 2026-04-13
    status Active
11. 2026-04-09
    status Pending
12. 2026-01-09
    price $35,000
13. 2025-11-24
    price $39,500
14. 2025-10-15
    status Active
15. 2025-09-28
    status Pending
16. 2025-09-25
    price $43,000
17. 2025-07-26
    price $45,000
18. 2025-05-23
    status Active
19. 2025-05-15
    status Pending
20. 2025-04-21
    price $50,000
21. 2025-04-02
    status Active
22. 2025-03-20
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2025-02-24
    status Active
24. 2025-02-17
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2025-01-30
    status Active
26. 2025-01-24
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2024-12-16
    listed $59,000 Active
28. 2022-01-31
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − HOA: −$6,840
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $3,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $2,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Missoula H S
• NCES district ID: 3018540
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,814
• Composite: 34.87/100
• National rank: #5087
• State rank: #53 of 116 in MT

Livability — Missoula

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #2351

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missoula, MT
• County: Missoula County · 100,878 people
• City population: 100,878
• Metro: Missoula, MT
• Population (ZIP): 30,916
• Household income: $58,347
• Rent vs Own: 57.4% rent · 42.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2286.0

Population outlook (Missoula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,248 people
• By 2030: 133,571 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 144,833 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 156,753 · +23.2%
• By 2075: 189,373 · +48.8%
• By 2100: 217,637 · +71.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Missoula

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.4) · D 59.0% · R 37.5% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.7pp · 2024: 21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.4 2020: D+23.6 2016: D+15.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+26.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -809.50%
• Current HPI: 268.1207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Missoula, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-29.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $35,000 MRMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $39,500 MRMLS
• 2025-10-15 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2025-09-28 Pending — MRMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $43,000 MRMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $45,000 MRMLS
• 2025-05-23 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2025-05-15 Pending — MRMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $50,000 MRMLS
• 2025-04-02 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2025-03-20 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2025-02-24 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2025-02-17 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2025-01-30 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2025-01-24 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2024-12-16 Listed $59,000 MRMLS
• 2022-01-31 Listed $49,900 MRMLS