202 1st St · Brazoria, TX 77422

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1950 10,001 sqft lot Est $211k · 34% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

If you’re looking for just enough space to make your own, this 2 bedroom, 2 bath property is ready for renovations. Situated on 2 lots, the home offers a functional layout with a kitchen/dining combo, flex room, and an indoor utility room. Covered front porch, carport, and concrete parking. City water and sewer, central electric heat and air, with easy access to Hwy 36. Being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• City water and sewer
• Flex room

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• INDOOR UTILITY ROOM
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• FLEX ROOM
• CONCRETE PARKING
• CITY WATER AND SEWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-138/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Brazoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,001 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Columbia El (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 709 students, 60% FRL); West Brazos J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 676 students, 65% FRL); Columbia H S (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 889 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 1st St	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,364 (0%)	1mo	$139,000	$102	95
220 3rd St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,235 (-10%)	2mo	$159,999	$130	72
111 4th St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+7%)	1mo	$210,000	$143	71
219 Red Oak Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,385 (+2%)	5mo	$285,000	$206	51
501 Burnett St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,522 (+12%)	7mo	$129,900	$85	50
619 S Wilson St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,216 (-11%)	1mo	$189,000	$155	46
710 Ghinaudo Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,188 (-13%)	3mo	$70,000	$59	42
110 W Florida St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,174 (-14%)	13mo	$127,000	$108	41
306 Marion St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (-10%)	11mo	$227,500	$186	38
305 W Travis St	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-10%)	19mo	$190,000	$155	35
113 Red Oak St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (+12%)	9mo	$271,400	$178	34
229 E Washington St	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,232 (-10%)	16mo	$250,000	$203	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $75,060
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $221,787
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77422

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,398/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,354

Max offer price $136,973

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $28	+0% $-11	+5% $-51	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-64	+0% $-11	+5% $41	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $24	base $-11	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-25
   price $139,000
4. 2026-01-27
   listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,398 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,398 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$3,398
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$580
• After-tax cash flow: $442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brazoria

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1001
• US rank: #17755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brazoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,548

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.41%
• Current HPI: 296.0632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $149,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,398 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.