5002 E Ironwood Cir · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$169,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1983 8,923 sqft lot $148/sqft · 8% above area Est $163k · at est. $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 1153 sq ft double wide that feels like a stick built home on one of the neighborhood's largest lots, with an expansive empty field behind. This home offers a covered carport with a sheltered patio deck beneath, an add on room for relaxation, an Arizona Room, and a cozy gas fireplace. The spacious master bedroom features an updated shower in the master bath. Exterior highlights include an expertly manicured yard that boosts curb appeal and easy maintenance. Two storage sheds, very clean inside, provide ample room for a workshop or extra storage. A perfect blend of comfort, outdoor space, and value in a prime spot ready for you to make it Home.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Gas fireplace
• Manicured yard

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• SHELTERED PATIO DECK
• GAS FIREPLACE
• UPDATED SHOWER
• MANICURED YARD
• STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $45 monthly fee; HOA covers grounds maintenance and trash; Community features include nearby bus stop, community media room, and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space; Separate storage area
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Private yard; Screened-in patio(s); Shed(s); Storage; Chain-link, wood and wire fencing; Asphalt road access; Desert front and back with gravel/stone landscaping; East/West exposure; Desert view

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bath; Full bath in master bedroom; Skylights; Dual-pane windows; Gas fireplace in family room; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Town & Country Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #600 of 1,109 statewide, top 56%, 433 students, 48% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $170k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,899 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.67%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,230
• List price: $169,999
• Delta: 4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4965 E Ironwood Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,121 (-3%)	0mo	$149,000	$133	89
5236 E Finch Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,154 (+0%)	2mo	$128,000	$111	76
3860 S Mahonia Pl	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,129 (-2%)	16mo	$135,000	$120	74
4915 S Tumbleweed Pl	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,175 (+2%)	18mo	$139,000	$118	72
5015 E Ironwood Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,121 (-3%)	19mo	$89,000	$79	72
3665 S Inca Dove Pl	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+8%)	10mo	$164,000	$131	63
5222 E Finch Cir	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	17mo	$125,000	$114	61
4978 E Kensington St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,149 (-0%)	10mo	$198,000	$172	59
3811 S Inca Dove Pl	0.15mi	2/1.0	1,247 (+8%)	22mo	$90,009	$72	57
4833 E Kevin St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,154 (+0%)	9mo	$175,000	$152	57
4132 S San Pedro Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,058 (-8%)	10mo	$135,000	$128	50
5156 E Goldfinch Cir	0.25mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,301 (+13%)	18mo	$120,000	$92	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,676
• Equity at exit: $25,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $23,093
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $601/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $169,999

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4413 Redwood St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,700	$1.25	43d	1	0.69mi
4488 Resort Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,700	$1.21	43d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,999 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,999 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,999 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,999 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,999 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,999 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,999 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,999 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,999 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,999 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,999 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,999 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $180,000 Active 660-char remark
18. 2016-04-06
    soldstatus $55,000
19. 2007-04-26
    soldstatus $120,000
20. 2004-08-12
    soldstatus $74,000
21. 2003-03-28
    soldstatus $57,000
22. 2001-11-15
    soldstatus $44,600
23. 1983-05-10
    soldstatus $8,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $601 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,122 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$521/yr (+$43/mo · 86.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$601
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $1,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $3,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1789.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $169,999 ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $180,000 ARMLS
• 2016-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $44,600 Public Records
• 1983-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $8,995 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $601 · -16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.