1913 Wayside Ln · Ava, MO 65608

$250,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,776 sqft · Other public records · 422 Days on market

Built 1995 0.37 ac lot $141/sqft · 40% above area Est $283k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owners says sell! Their loss, your gain. Looking for a lakeview home? 3+ bedroom 2.5 bath home with over 4,000 sq. ft! 3 large bedrooms with space to make an additional 3 bedrooms!!! 12'x15' heated and cooled sunroom with beautiful lake views would make a wonderful dining room! The home features Anderson windows, Birch cabinets in the kitchen, Geothermal HVAC, and an amazing amount of storage!! The basement offers a large multipurpose room, large bedroom, full bath and two rooms totaling over 800 sq. ft. that could be finished into whatever you need! Beside the home you will find a terraced garden system with a well established strawberry bed! Spacious two car garage and landscaping finish off this property with tons of potential! The lake offers relaxation as you watch the wildlife from inside or outside the home.

Key facts

• Anderson windows
• Multipurpose room
• Birch cabinets

Tags

• LAKEVIEW HOME
• HEATED AND COOLED SUNROOM
• ANDERSON WINDOWS
• BIRCH CABINETS
• GEOTHERMAL HVAC
• MULTIPURPOSE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (44.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (44.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ava Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 544 students, 64% FRL); Ava Middle (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 390 students, 62% FRL); Ava High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 451 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 422 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,137 (44.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 422 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,749
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -11.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $93,293
• Equity at exit: $208,107

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $292,149
• Equity at exit: $431,744

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65608

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,921

Max offer price $176,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-277	-5% $-348	+0% $-419	+5% $-489	+10% $-560
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-474	+0% $-419	+5% $-364	+10% $-309
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-355	base $-419	+0.5pp $-484	+1.0pp $-549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 422 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 421 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 419 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 418 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 417 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 416 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 414 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 413 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 410 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 409 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 408 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 407 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 404 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 403 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 402 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 401 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    price $250,000 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Owners says sell! Their loss, your gain. Looking for a lakeview home? 3+ bedroom 2.5 bath home with over 4,000 sq. ft! 3 large bedrooms with space to make an additional 3 bedrooms!!! 12'x15' heated and cooled sunroom with beautiful lake views would make a wonderful dining room! The home features Anderson windows, Birch cabinets in the kitchen, Geothermal HVAC, and an amazing amount of storage!! The basement offers a large multipurpose room, large bedroom, full bath and two rooms totaling over 800 sq. ft. that could be finished into whatever you need! Beside the home you will find a terraced garden system with a well established strawberry bed! Spacious two car garage and landscaping finish off this property with tons of potential! The lake offers relaxation as you watch the wildlife from inside or outside the home.

18. 2025-04-22
    listed $310,000 Active 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Owners says sell! Their loss, your gain. Looking for a lakeview home? 3+ bedroom 2.5 bath home with over 4,000 sq. ft! 3 large bedrooms with space to make an additional 3 bedrooms!!! 12'x15' heated and cooled sunroom with beautiful lake views would make a wonderful dining room! The home features Anderson windows, Birch cabinets in the kitchen, Geothermal HVAC, and an amazing amount of storage!! The basement offers a large multipurpose room, large bedroom, full bath and two rooms totaling over 800 sq. ft. that could be finished into whatever you need! Beside the home you will find a terraced garden system with a well established strawberry bed! Spacious two car garage and landscaping finish off this property with tons of potential! The lake offers relaxation as you watch the wildlife from inside or outside the home.

19. 2020-10-28
    soldstatus
20. 2020-10-27
    soldstatus 1205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

    Lakeside Living in Ava Mo. The neat landscaping welcomes you into the large 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home. Enter through the spacious 2 car garage and inside you will find wide hallways with 3ft doors, a large living room, and gally kitchen along with a nice sized sun room with an AMAZING view. All windows are anderson windows. The kitchen features Birch cabinets and is spacious enough to cook a meal for the whole family! The large master bedroom is on the main floor with a private bathroom that includes a stand up shower, deep tub, and walk in closet with ample storage of shelves and rods to hang clothes. Also on the main floor, there is a spare bedroom , bathroom, and large laundry room. The laundry room is large enough that it could be used for an office or craft room as well!Downstairs you will find a spacious living area, large bedroom and full bathroom. There is a storm room that cound be finished to make an additional bedroom, or keep it for storage. The downstairs also features another storage room wit ha garage door leading to the back patio. The back patio has one of the best views in Ava! It overlooks a HUGE lake/pond that often has ducks swimming in it. This home is move in ready!

21. 2019-06-05
    listed $225,000 1205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

    Lakeside Living in Ava Mo. The neat landscaping welcomes you into the large 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home. Enter through the spacious 2 car garage and inside you will find wide hallways with 3ft doors, a large living room, and gally kitchen along with a nice sized sun room with an AMAZING view. All windows are anderson windows. The kitchen features Birch cabinets and is spacious enough to cook a meal for the whole family! The large master bedroom is on the main floor with a private bathroom that includes a stand up shower, deep tub, and walk in closet with ample storage of shelves and rods to hang clothes. Also on the main floor, there is a spare bedroom , bathroom, and large laundry room. The laundry room is large enough that it could be used for an office or craft room as well!Downstairs you will find a spacious living area, large bedroom and full bathroom. There is a storm room that cound be finished to make an additional bedroom, or keep it for storage. The downstairs also features another storage room wit ha garage door leading to the back patio. The back patio has one of the best views in Ava! It overlooks a HUGE lake/pond that often has ducks swimming in it. This home is move in ready!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,192/yr (+$99/mo · 96.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,336
• − Management: −$1,336
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,336
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ava R-I
• NCES district ID: 2904050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,148
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5766
• State rank: #177 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ava

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1299

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ava, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,478

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,395 people
• By 2030: 11,690 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 10,185 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 8,805 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 6,716 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 5,493 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.05%
• Current HPI: 249.1557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $250,000 SOMO
• 2025-04-22 Listed $310,000 SOMO
• 2020-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-27 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2019-06-05 Listed $225,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.