319 E Ricky Crossland Ave · Elsa, TX 78543

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1983 9,099 sqft lot $101/sqft · 8% above area Est $73k · 8% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Value is in the land!! This property is being sold at lot value and presents a great opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to build new. Existing structure is on-site but not being given value. Located in an established area with utilities available. Sold as-is, where-is.

Key facts

• Utilities available
• 9,099 sq ft lot
• Built 1983

Tags

• UTILITIES AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($681/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($895 rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Elsa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#648 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Edcouch-Elsa ISD (suburban): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #822 of 826 in TX (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,860
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: 8.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
328 W 7th Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	718 (-8%)	13mo	$59,995	$84	52
1002 W Ciro Caceres Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	884 (+13%)	4mo	$65,000	$74	48
223 S Greenville St	0.45mi	1/1.0 (-1)	874 (+12%)	8mo	$168,000	$192	47
926 N Fannin St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	816 (+5%)	21mo	$50,000	$61	42
907 Benito Alaniz St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	724 (-7%)	16mo	$55,000	$76	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $20,874
• Equity at exit: $43,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $60,639
• Equity at exit: $74,494

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78543

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,435/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $823

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $79	+0% $57	+5% $34	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $21	+0% $57	+5% $92	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $77	base $57	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 N Carlson St Elsa, TX	3.0	2.0	750	$950	$1.27	44d	1	0.37mi
300 Sylvia Handy Dr Unit 205 Elsa, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$825	$0.91	44d	1	0.57mi
300 Sylvia Handy Dr Unit 217 Elsa, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$800	$0.88	44d	1	0.57mi
108 Tulipan Dr Elsa, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$995	$0.98	44d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $79,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $89,000 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    Value is in the land!! This property is being sold at lot value and presents a great opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to build new. Existing structure is on-site but not being given value. Located in an established area with utilities available. Sold as-is, where-is.

17. 2026-03-23
    listed $99,000 Active 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    Value is in the land!! This property is being sold at lot value and presents a great opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to build new. Existing structure is on-site but not being given value. Located in an established area with utilities available. Sold as-is, where-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$2,435
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$859
• − Management: −$859
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable loss: −$534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$128
• After-tax cash flow: $809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edcouch-Elsa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818060
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $25,724
• Composite: 10.99/100
• National rank: #9744
• State rank: #822 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elsa

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #648
• US rank: #12248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elsa, TX
• City population: 8,608
• Population (ZIP): 8,608

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 56% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 96%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 81%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Current HPI: 250.7357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $99,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,435 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.