4538 Oak St · Fruitland Park, FL 34731

$139,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1987 10,406 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

''As is'' This 3/2 features living room, dining area, master bedroom with walk in closet, master & guest bath with tub and shower, split bedroom plan, and inside laundry. Carpet vinyl flooring. Volume ceilings & ceiling fans. Utility room. Light & bright enclosed front porch with ceiling fan and two exit doors. Property is completely fenced and back yard has a large deck with a great view of neighboring pastures. Two sheds on property: Front shed houses well for irrigation, separate well for house, water softener system. Rear shed used as workshop with electric & window A/C. Mature landscaping along with oak & fruit trees. Located just minutes to lake with boat access.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Walk-in closet
• Large backyard deck

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• INCREDIBLE BACKYARD SETTING
• LARGE BACKYARD DECK
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.24 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: No association; No association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Home faces north; Residential property (homesteaded)
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction materials; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Dog run; Storage shed/space; Chain link fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Other heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $137k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.0% in Fruitland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#447 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $964 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $140k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,407 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.06%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,571
• Equity at exit: $20,800

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $47,496
• Equity at exit: $12,061

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34731

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $806/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,085

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $530	+0% $490	+5% $451	+10% $411
Rent	-10% $355	-5% $423	+0% $490	+5% $557	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $560	-0.5pp $526	base $490	+0.5pp $454	+1.0pp $417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36832 Wilmington Rd Fruitland Park, FL	3.0	3.0	1452	$1,800	$1.24	4d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,500 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,500 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,500 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,500 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,500 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,500 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,500 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $139,500 Active
15. 2016-04-18
    soldstatus $35,000
16. 2016-04-14
    soldstatus $35,000 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    "As is" This 3/2 features living room, dining area, master bedroom with walk in closet, master & guest bath with tub and shower, split bedroom plan, and inside laundry. Carpet vinyl flooring. Volume ceilings & ceiling fans. Utility room. Light & bright enclosed front porch with ceiling fan and two exit doors. Property is completely fenced and back yard has a large deck with a great view of neighboring pastures. Two sheds on property: Front shed houses well for irrigation, separate well for house, water softener system. Rear shed used as workshop with electric & window A/C. Mature landscaping along with oak & fruit trees. Located just minutes to lake with boat access.

17. 2016-04-14
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    "As is" This 3/2 features living room, dining area, master bedroom with walk in closet, master & guest bath with tub and shower, split bedroom plan, and inside laundry. Carpet vinyl flooring. Volume ceilings & ceiling fans. Utility room. Light & bright enclosed front porch with ceiling fan and two exit doors. Property is completely fenced and back yard has a large deck with a great view of neighboring pastures. Two sheds on property: Front shed houses well for irrigation, separate well for house, water softener system. Rear shed used as workshop with electric & window A/C. Mature landscaping along with oak & fruit trees. Located just minutes to lake with boat access.

18. 2016-02-29
    status Pending 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    "As is" This 3/2 features living room, dining area, master bedroom with walk in closet, master & guest bath with tub and shower, split bedroom plan, and inside laundry. Carpet vinyl flooring. Volume ceilings & ceiling fans. Utility room. Light & bright enclosed front porch with ceiling fan and two exit doors. Property is completely fenced and back yard has a large deck with a great view of neighboring pastures. Two sheds on property: Front shed houses well for irrigation, separate well for house, water softener system. Rear shed used as workshop with electric & window A/C. Mature landscaping along with oak & fruit trees. Located just minutes to lake with boat access.

19. 2016-02-04
    listed $45,000 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    "As is" This 3/2 features living room, dining area, master bedroom with walk in closet, master & guest bath with tub and shower, split bedroom plan, and inside laundry. Carpet vinyl flooring. Volume ceilings & ceiling fans. Utility room. Light & bright enclosed front porch with ceiling fan and two exit doors. Property is completely fenced and back yard has a large deck with a great view of neighboring pastures. Two sheds on property: Front shed houses well for irrigation, separate well for house, water softener system. Rear shed used as workshop with electric & window A/C. Mature landscaping along with oak & fruit trees. Located just minutes to lake with boat access.

20. 2016-02-02
    listed $45,000 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    ''As is'' This 3/2 features living room, dining area, master bedroom with walk in closet, master & guest bath with tub and shower, split bedroom plan, and inside laundry. Carpet vinyl flooring. Volume ceilings & ceiling fans. Utility room. Light & bright enclosed front porch with ceiling fan and two exit doors. Property is completely fenced and back yard has a large deck with a great view of neighboring pastures. Two sheds on property: Front shed houses well for irrigation, separate well for house, water softener system. Rear shed used as workshop with electric & window A/C. Mature landscaping along with oak & fruit trees. Located just minutes to lake with boat access.

21. 2005-11-15
    soldstatus $84,000
22. 2005-10-28
    soldstatus $84,000
23. 2005-09-08
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,158 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 43.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$806
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable income: $3,811
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$915
• After-tax cash flow: $4,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fruitland Park

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #8098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 12,196
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,196
• Household income: $66,300
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.91%
• Current HPI: 318.8206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+64.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $139,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-14 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-14 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-04 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-02 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-28 Sold (MLS) $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-08 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $806 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.