407 Hiawatha Blvd · Winona, MN 55987

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1958 9,583 sqft lot $150/sqft · 9% above area Est $182k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Comfortable one-level living with 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and a convenient main-level laundry room. The home features a great layout that flows easily from room to room, plus a spacious one-stall garage for added storage and convenience. Step outside to a large backyard ready for you to create your own outdoor space-whether that's relaxing, entertaining, or gardening. Build equity with simple cosmetic updates and make this home truly your own. Located in a wonderful area with easy highway access and within walking distance to local businesses, making everyday living simple and convenient.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• One level living
• Easy highway access

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• MAIN LEVEL LAUNDRY ROOM
• SPACIOUS ONE STALL GARAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• EASY HIGHWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; 100 amp electric service; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential single-level home; One story; Slab foundation; Primary entry and living areas on main level; Accessible design with no internal stairs
• Construction: Slab foundation; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Patio; Lot approximately 0.22 acres (dimensions 121x21)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (primary bedroom on main floor); Bedroom sizes: 13x11, 12x11, 11x9
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bath (1 total)
• Heating & cooling: Boiler with baseboard heating; Ductless mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Hardwood floors; Kitchen window; Natural woodwork; Paneled doors; Patio; Walk-in closet in primary bedroom; Main floor primary bedroom; All living facilities on one level; No basement; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located on main level / in hall; Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-316/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Winona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#63 in MN, #1,558 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Winona Area Public School District (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #244 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.0%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Winona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winona County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $185k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,023 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,000
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 1.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-23,338
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $15,356
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55987

• Rents YoY: 18.0%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,968/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $180,353

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $185,000 Active 600-char remark
2. 1993-08-05
   soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,968
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$834
• After-tax cash flow: $519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2744070
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,678
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6058
• State rank: #244 of 301 in MN

Livability — Winona

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #1558

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winona, MN
• County: Winona County · 34,072 people
• City population: 34,072
• Metro: Winona, MN
• Population (ZIP): 34,072
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Winona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,614 people
• By 2030: 50,243 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 48,142 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 45,872 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 42,416 · -16.2%
• By 2100: 40,031 · -20.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winona

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: -4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.9 2020: D+0.4 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+12.9 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -166.61%
• Current HPI: 193.7509
• Rent YoY: ▲ 17.99%
• Metro: Winona, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+176.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $185,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,968 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.