305 Roberts Ave Ave · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1928 0.50 ac lot $98/sqft · 8% below area Est $190k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell! Welcome to this charming two-story farmhouse in the heart of Lynchburg. Relax on the oversized front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Inside, you will find spacious bedrooms offering comfort and flexibility. Step outside to a large yard with plenty of room for kids, pets, or outdoor entertaining. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and downtown Lynchburg, this home combines space, charm, and accessibility at a great price.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Two story farmhouse
• Minutes from dining

Tags

• TWO STORY FARMHOUSE
• OVERSIZED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE YARD
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM DINING
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.5 acre
• Financial info: Tax information provided but excluded from features
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking information not provided
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Basement with sump pump
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $175k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,345 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,065
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -7.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1822 Pocahontas St	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,906 (+6%)	2mo	$195,000	$102	47
3323 Campbell Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,874 (+4%)	21mo	$177,500	$95	44
3311 Campbell Ave Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (-15%)	2mo	$207,000	$136	35
3213 Campbell Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,524 (-15%)	12mo	$241,000	$158	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,252
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-23,422
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,340/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2205 Mayflower Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	21d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $175,000 Active 487-char remark
16. 2025-03-04
    price $185,000
17. 2025-01-07
    listed $194,900 Active
18. 2023-10-05
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed
19. 2023-09-02
    status Pending
20. 2023-07-06
    price $109,900
21. 2023-06-27
    listed $129,900 Active
22. 1976-07-02
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,340
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$396
• After-tax cash flow: $1,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1066.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $175,000 LMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $175,000 LMLS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $185,000 LMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listed $194,900 LMLS
• 2023-10-05 Sold (MLS) $100,000 LMLS
• 2023-09-02 Pending — LMLS
• 2023-07-06 Price Changed $109,900 LMLS
• 2023-06-27 Listed $129,900 LMLS
• 1976-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,340 · +50.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.