13248 95th St NE · Otsego, MN 55330

$400,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,757 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1981 2.22 ac lot Est $397k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

Key facts

• 2.22 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage approx. 32 x 24)
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer; Propane fuel
• Home design: Residential property; Modified two-story; Main-level entry; Walkout basement
• Construction: Block foundation; Block foundation area listed; Built using vinyl exterior materials
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Deck; Patio; Side porch; Storage shed; Hen house; Light tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island and window; Breakfast bar / breakfast area / eat-in kitchen; Refrigerator; Range; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (three upstairs, two on the lower level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: One full bath (upper level); One three-quarter bath (basement); One half bath (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet; Finished walkout basement; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Lower level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Otsego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 453 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $400k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $303,030 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $397,082
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13654 Mississippi Rd NW	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-8%)	2mo	$365,000	$226	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-78,374
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-85,846
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55330

• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,100/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,299

Max offer price $362,542

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13918 Riverview Dr NW Elk River, MN	4.0	2.0	2500	$4,500	$1.80	44d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   status Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-27
   status Active
4. 2026-04-17
   historical Contingent - Inspection
5. 2026-04-10
   listed $400,000 Active
6. 2026-04-08
   historical $400,000
7. 2018-07-03
   historical
8. 2018-06-08
   price $269,900
9. 2018-06-01
   listed $279,900 Active
10. 2015-02-13
    soldstatus $190,000 Sold 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

11. 2015-02-13
    soldstatus $190,000

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

12. 2015-02-13
    soldstatus $190,000

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

13. 2015-01-15
    status Pending 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

14. 2015-01-13
    historical 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

15. 2015-01-02
    price $169,900 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

16. 2014-12-02
    price $185,000 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

17. 2014-12-02
    listed $1,850,000 Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Split entry on over 2 acres! Beautiful view from dining room of the partially wooded lot. 2 bedrooms up and 2 down. Large deck, finished walkout lower level w/separate kitchen/wet bar and family room. Fresh paint and new carpet throughout!

18. 2014-12-01
    listed $169,900
19. 2014-12-01
    listed $169,900
20. 1985-04-30
    soldstatus $71,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,100 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,290 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$4,100
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,909
• − Management: −$2,909
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$9,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,303
• After-tax cash flow: $-241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,721
• Household income: $115,761
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.46%
• Current HPI: 241.3028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+461.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $400,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $400,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-08 Price Changed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-01 Listed $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-13 Sold (MLS) $190,000 LSAR
• 2015-02-13 Sold (MLS) $190,000 RASM
• 2015-02-13 Sold (MLS) $190,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-02 Price Changed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-02 Price Changed $185,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-02 Listed $1,850,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-01 Listed $169,900 LSAR
• 2014-12-01 Listed $169,900 RASM
• 1985-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $71,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,100 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.