Richmond Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$627,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,724 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Good condition 3-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The open floorplan shared between the Great Room, kitchen and dining room serves as the heart of this single-level home, while sliding glass doors lead to a lanai for effortless indoor-outdoor living and entertaining. A versatile den is ideal for a home office or study space, and four bedrooms offer enough space for the whole family.

Key facts

• Versatile den
• Open floorplan
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• LANAI
• VERSATILE DEN

🏗️ New construction. The $627,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $1,081,008.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $628k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $612k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $536k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $536k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1687 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,356/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $535,618 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.84%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,081,008
• List price: $627,999
• Delta: -41.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5243 Rosado Run	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+1%)	3mo	$480,000	$174	77
5235 Rosado Run	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+1%)	3mo	$480,000	$174	76
18919 Cherrystone Way	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,689 (-1%)	2mo	$1,010,000	$376	76
5732 Mulligan Way	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,776 (+2%)	4mo	$1,400,000	$504	76
5227 Rosado Run	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+1%)	4mo	$490,000	$178	75
18853 Cherrystone Way	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,689 (-1%)	4mo	$1,020,000	$379	71
5117 Rosado Run	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,789 (+2%)	2mo	$500,000	$179	70
18923 Cherrystone Way	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,799 (+3%)	0mo	$975,000	$348	68
19911 Trout Ter	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,689 (-1%)	2mo	$1,209,920	$450	68
18911 Cherrystone Way	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,799 (+3%)	3mo	$1,040,000	$372	66
18026 Fattoria Ter	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,537 (-7%)	4mo	$534,500	$211	65
5580 Mulligan Way	0.27mi	4/3.5	3,078 (+13%)	0mo	$1,362,500	$443	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-397,093
• Equity at exit: $161,182

10-year hold

• IRR: -96.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.22×
• Total profit: $-671,770
• Equity at exit: $93,466

Cash invested: $302,682 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 60 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $845,607 ($344/sqft)
• Median days on market: 48 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1687
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,669
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,351 /mo · $16,215/yr
• Insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,125
• Net cashflow: $-3,239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,456

Max offer price $612,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,492	-5% $-2,866	+0% $-3,239	+5% $-3,613	+10% $-3,986
Rent	-10% $-3,662	-5% $-3,451	+0% $-3,239	+5% $-3,028	+10% $-2,816
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,695	-0.5pp $-2,964	base $-3,239	+0.5pp $-3,519	+1.0pp $-3,804

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $270,252
• Closing costs: $32,430
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5522 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$5,800	$2.13	164d	1	0.02mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$12,500	$5.11	164d	1	0.02mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$8,000	$3.27	10d	1	0.02mi
5420 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$6,000	$2.45	164d	1	0.02mi
5628 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2252	$4,595	$2.04	144d	1	0.02mi
19047 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2245	$8,000	$3.56	10d	1	0.21mi
19051 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$5,000	$2.04	55d	1	0.21mi
19051 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$5,700	$2.33	10d	1	0.21mi
5623 Mulligan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2359	$14,000	$5.93	10d	1	0.22mi
19219 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$6,000	$2.20	110d	1	0.32mi
18211 Fattoria Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	3362	$3,600	$1.07	164d	1	0.41mi
18731 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$8,000	$2.86	10d	1	0.46mi
19718 Trout Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	21d	1	0.47mi
19209 Cherrystone WAY #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$5,000	$2.37	55d	1	0.47mi
19718 Trout Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$5,250	$2.34	2d	1	0.47mi
5725 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$12,000	$6.49	10d	1	0.49mi
5720 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	10d	1	0.50mi
19124 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$7,000	$3.12	10d	1	0.51mi
19140 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$8,000	$3.56	125d	1	0.52mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	164d	1	0.53mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,799	$1.53	127d	1	0.53mi
19108 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$4,600	$2.05	108d	1	0.59mi
19023 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	10d	1	0.59mi
19156 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$5,000	$2.23	164d	1	0.59mi
19230 Cherrystone Way #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,600	$1.44	10d	1	0.60mi
5119 Adega Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,990	$1.64	46d	1	0.62mi
20103 Trout Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2689	$8,500	$3.16	2d	1	0.66mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	152d	1	0.67mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	164d	1	0.67mi
17915 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,999	$1.47	164d	1	0.68mi
18006 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2674	$3,400	$1.27	46d	1	0.68mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,700	$1.14	55d	1	0.69mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	144d	1	0.69mi
5907 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$6,800	$3.03	10d	1	0.71mi
17918 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,800	$1.53	10d	1	0.72mi
17821 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,200	$1.56	127d	1	0.74mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	164d	1	0.75mi
17808 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	3362	$3,600	$1.07	6d	1	0.76mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	10d	1	0.77mi
5125 Tannin Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2700	$4,200	$1.56	49d	1	0.77mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price indicated (use agent or listing for exact amount)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Richmond plan (new construction plan)Single-story plan name indicated

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2,724 total living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $627,999 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $627,999 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $627,999 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $627,999 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $627,999 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $627,999 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $627,999 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $627,999 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $627,999 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $627,999 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $627,999 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $627,999 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $627,999 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $627,999 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $627,999 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $627,999 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $627,999 Active 188 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $627,999 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $627,999 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $627,999 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $627,999 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $627,999 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $627,999 Active 182 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $627,999 Active 181 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $627,999 Active 180 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $627,999 Active 179 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $627,999 Active 178 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $627,999 Active 177 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $627,999 Active 176 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $627,999 Active 175 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $627,999 Active 174 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $627,999 Active 173 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $627,999 Active 172 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $627,999 Active 171 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $627,999 Active 170 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $627,999 Active 169 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $627,999 Active 168 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $627,999 Active 167 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $627,999 Active 166 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $627,999 Active 165 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $627,999 Active 164 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $627,999 Active 163 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $627,999 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $627,999 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $627,999 Active 158 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $627,999 Active 157 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    pricedays on marketlisting id $627,999 Active 156 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $625,999 Active 10 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $625,999 Active 9 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $625,999 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$60,553
• − Property taxes: −$16,215
• − Insurance: −$5,405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,142
• − Management: −$5,142
• − Depreciation: −$31,447
• Taxable loss: −$59,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with a modern open floor plan and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good ROI with minor updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can improve the home's ambiance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price indicated (use agent or listing for exact amount)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Richmond plan (new construction plan)Single-story plan name indicated

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2,724 total living area)