Richmond Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$627,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,724 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Good condition 3-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The open floorplan shared between the Great Room, kitchen and dining room serves as the heart of this single-level home, while sliding glass doors lead to a lanai for effortless indoor-outdoor living and entertaining. A versatile den is ideal for a home office or study space, and four bedrooms offer enough space for the whole family.

Key facts

• Versatile den
• Open floorplan
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• LANAI
• VERSATILE DEN

🏗️ New construction. The $627,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $909,772.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $628k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $599k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $524k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $524k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,238/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $523,755 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.13%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $909,772
• List price: $627,999
• Delta: -31.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5243 Rosado Run	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+1%)	2mo	$480,000	$174	78
5235 Rosado Run	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+1%)	2mo	$480,000	$174	77
18919 Cherrystone Way	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,689 (-1%)	1mo	$1,010,000	$376	77
5732 Mulligan Way	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,776 (+2%)	3mo	$1,400,000	$504	77
5227 Rosado Run	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+1%)	2mo	$490,000	$178	76
5211 Rosado Run	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+1%)	3mo	$470,000	$171	74
18853 Cherrystone Way	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,689 (-1%)	2mo	$1,020,000	$379	72
5117 Rosado Run	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,789 (+2%)	1mo	$500,000	$179	71
19911 Trout Ter	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,689 (-1%)	1mo	$1,209,920	$450	69
18911 Cherrystone Way	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,799 (+3%)	1mo	$1,040,000	$372	67
18026 Fattoria Ter	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,537 (-7%)	2mo	$534,500	$211	66
19223 Scallop Loop	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,445 (-10%)	3mo	$775,000	$317	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-299,599
• Equity at exit: $135,650

10-year hold

• IRR: -78.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.95×
• Total profit: $-496,173
• Equity at exit: $78,660

Cash invested: $254,736 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 56 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.3 mo (23%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $829,252 ($342/sqft)
• Median days on market: 31 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1554
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,238 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,771
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,137 /mo · $13,647/yr
• Insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,100
• Net cashflow: $-2,150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,959

Max offer price $598,727

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,521	-5% $-1,835	+0% $-2,150	+5% $-2,464	+10% $-2,778
Rent	-10% $-2,563	-5% $-2,356	+0% $-2,150	+5% $-1,943	+10% $-1,736
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,691	-0.5pp $-1,918	base $-2,150	+0.5pp $-2,385	+1.0pp $-2,625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $227,443
• Closing costs: $27,293
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5628 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2252	$4,595	$2.04	99d	1	0.02mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$12,500	$5.11	119d	1	0.02mi
5420 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$6,000	$2.45	119d	1	0.02mi
5522 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$5,800	$2.13	119d	1	0.02mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$9,000	$3.68	80d	1	0.02mi
19051 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$5,700	$2.33	5d	1	0.21mi
19051 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$5,000	$2.04	9d	1	0.21mi
5623 Mulligan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2359	$14,000	$5.93	119d	1	0.22mi
19219 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$6,000	$2.20	65d	1	0.32mi
18211 Fattoria Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	3362	$3,600	$1.07	119d	1	0.41mi
18731 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$8,000	$2.86	119d	1	0.46mi
19209 Cherrystone WAY #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$5,000	$2.37	9d	1	0.47mi
5725 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$12,000	$6.49	0d	1	0.49mi
5720 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	119d	1	0.50mi
19140 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$8,000	$3.56	80d	1	0.52mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	119d	1	0.53mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,799	$1.53	82d	1	0.53mi
19108 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$4,600	$2.05	63d	1	0.59mi
19023 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	99d	1	0.59mi
19156 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$5,000	$2.23	119d	1	0.59mi
19214 Cherrystone Way Unit 104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$4,000	$2.29	9d	1	0.59mi
5119 Adega Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,990	$1.64	0d	1	0.62mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	119d	1	0.67mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	107d	1	0.67mi
17915 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,999	$1.47	119d	1	0.68mi
18006 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2674	$3,400	$1.27	0d	1	0.68mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	99d	1	0.69mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,700	$1.14	9d	1	0.69mi
5907 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$6,800	$3.03	119d	1	0.71mi
17918 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,800	$1.53	9d	1	0.72mi
17821 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,200	$1.56	82d	1	0.74mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	119d	1	0.75mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	119d	1	0.77mi
5125 Tannin Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2700	$4,200	$1.56	4d	1	0.77mi
17819 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,680	$1.47	62d	1	0.78mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,300	$1.61	82d	1	0.78mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,000	$2.24	119d	1	0.78mi
5105 Vecchio Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,900	$1.59	82d	1	0.79mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	119d	1	0.82mi
17467 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$12,500	$5.56	119d	1	0.83mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price indicated (use agent or listing for exact amount)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Richmond plan (new construction plan)Single-story plan name indicated

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2,724 total living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $627,999 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $627,999 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   pricedays on marketlisting id $627,999 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $625,999 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $625,999 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $625,999 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $625,999 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $625,999 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $625,999 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $625,999 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on marketlisting id $625,999 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $627,999 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $627,999 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $627,999 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $625,999 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $625,999 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $625,999 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $625,999 Active 133 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $625,999 Active 132 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $625,999 Active 131 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $625,999 Active 130 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $625,999 Active 129 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $625,999 Active 128 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $625,999 Active 127 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $625,999 Active 126 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $625,999 Active 125 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $625,999 Active 124 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $625,999 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $625,999 Active 122 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $625,999 Active 121 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $625,999 Active 120 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $625,999 Active 119 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $625,999 Active 118 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $625,999 Active 117 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $625,999 Active 116 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $625,999 Active 115 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $625,999 Active 114 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $625,999 Active 113 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $625,999 Active 112 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $625,999 Active 111 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $625,999 Active 110 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $625,999 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $625,999 Active 105 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $625,999 Active 103 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $625,999 Active 102 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $625,999 Active 98 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $625,999 Active 97 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $625,999 Active 96 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $625,999 Active 95 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $625,999 Active 92 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,961
• − Property taxes: −$13,647
• − Insurance: −$4,549
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,028
• − Management: −$5,028
• − Depreciation: −$26,466
• Taxable loss: −$42,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,279
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with a modern open floor plan and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good ROI with minor updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can improve the home's ambiance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price indicated (use agent or listing for exact amount)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Richmond plan (new construction plan)Single-story plan name indicated

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2,724 total living area)