3902 Van Ln · Sebring, FL 33870

$37,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Manufactured · 184 Days on market

Built 1979 ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming and updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the desirable 55+ community of Oak Ridge in Sebring. Built in 1979, this bright and inviting residence combines comfortable living with smart upgrades—all set on a premium lot with no rear neighbors and a tranquil orange grove view beside you. As you arrive, a screened front porch invites you to relax and enjoy Florida’s gentle breezes. Inside, the generous living room features a large addition that provides ample space for entertaining or simply spreading out in style. The kitchen shines with beautifully upgraded cabinetry, modern appliances (including a 2-year-old stove), and a layout designed for everyday

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• 3 year old a/c unit
• Modern appliances

Tags

• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE ADDITION
• UPGRADED CABINETRY
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• 3 YEAR OLD A/C UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: MH-1
• Financial info: Land is leased ($801)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer available)
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single wide; One level; Under construction
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Side porch; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Disposal; Oven; Range; Refrigerator

🏗️ New construction. The $37,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $163,750.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $37k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $37k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Sebring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 475 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 6.6% of price.

Recommended offer $32,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,750
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2841 San Francisco Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-0%)	6mo	$163,000	$131	57
4701 Ferdinand Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	5mo	$83,000	$59	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-35,988
• Equity at exit: $24,416

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-53,433
• Equity at exit: $14,158

Cash invested: $45,850 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33870

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$859
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$205 /mo · $2,456/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $151,023

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-31	+0% $-88	+5% $-145	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-140	+0% $-88	+5% $-36	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-46	base $-88	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,938
• Closing costs: $4,912
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8761 Watersound Cir Sebring, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1090	$1,210	$1.11	22d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $37,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $37,000 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-04-27
   price $41,000
4. 2025-11-28
   listed $58,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,173
• − Property taxes: −$2,456
• − Insurance: −$819
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,764
• Taxable loss: −$3,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$935
• After-tax cash flow: $-121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sebring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #11992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 98,898 people
• City population: 50,797
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,195
• Household income: $49,942
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.68%
• Current HPI: 273.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.29%
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-29.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $41,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-11-28 Listed $58,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID