107 A Hudson Pkwy · Manchester, NJ 08759

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 315 Days on market

Built 1978 Average condition $87/sqft · 28% below area Est $182k · 28% under $390/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained Lexington model with an open floor plan and lots of storage space. 2 Full Baths and 2 bedrooms along with relaxing and bright sunroom. French doors lead into living/dining room combo. Eat-in kitchen with oversized pantry close by in hallway for easy access. Electric fireplace in living room to add ambiance. C/A replaced in 2019, Windows & interior doors were replaced. French doors installed 2010. Outside patio with canopy. One car garage for convenience.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• French doors
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LOTS OF STORAGE SPACE
• RELAXING SUNROOM
• FRENCH DOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.3% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 130d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,097/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.15%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,500
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -28.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
988 B Constitution Blvd	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,565 (+4%)	3mo	$135,000	$86	87
1 Salem Dr Unit B	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,558 (+4%)	0mo	$185,000	$119	86
14 Monmouth Ln Unit B	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,545 (+3%)	2mo	$134,900	$87	74
21 Hudson Pkwy	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,495 (-0%)	0mo	$160,000	$107	74
70 Franklin Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,363 (-9%)	3mo	$142,500	$105	71
26 B Moccasin Dr Unit B	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,558 (+4%)	1mo	$105,000	$67	71
29 Moccasin Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,383 (-8%)	0mo	$160,000	$116	67
35 Constitution Blvd	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,363 (-9%)	3mo	$172,500	$127	64
3 Lincoln Ct	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,398 (-7%)	1mo	$120,000	$86	62
—	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+7%)	0mo	$180,000	$113	55
4B Cottage Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-7%)	0mo	$163,000	$117	54
75 Independence Pkwy	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,300 (-13%)	2mo	$118,000	$91	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,517
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $24,717
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $224,950 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -28.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$390
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $347	+0% $302	+5% $257	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $136	-5% $219	+0% $302	+5% $385	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $335	base $302	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	130d	1	0.55mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	184d	1	0.55mi
54 Constitution Blvd Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1198	$1,325	$1.11	83d	1	0.61mi
— Lakehurst, NJ	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	129d	1	0.77mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,300	$1.49	118d	1	0.84mi
12A Juniper Ln Unit B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	123d	1	0.86mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	157d	1	0.88mi
35 Milford Ave #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1101	$2,500	$2.27	38d	1	0.96mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	130d	1	1.03mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	161d	1	1.03mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	144d	1	1.41mi
5B Graystone Pl Unit B Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1113	$1,700	$1.53	0d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail $390/mo · $4,680/yr

• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 315 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $130,000 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $130,000 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 311 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $130,000 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $130,000 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $130,000 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $130,000 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $130,000 Active 301 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $130,000 Active 300 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $130,000 Active 299 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $130,000 Active 298 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $130,000 Active 297 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $130,000 Active 296 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $130,000 Active 295 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $130,000 Active 294 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $130,000 Active 293 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $130,000 Active 292 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $130,000 Active 291 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $130,000 Active 290 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $130,000 Active 289 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    price $130,000 Active 288 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $150,000 Active 288 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $150,000 Active 287 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $150,000 Active 286 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 285 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 284 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 283 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $150,000 Active 282 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 281 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 280 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 279 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 278 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 277 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 276 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $150,000 Active 275 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $150,000 Active 274 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $150,000 Active 273 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $150,000 Active 272 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $150,000 Active 271 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $150,000 Active 270 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $150,000 Active 269 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $150,000 Active 268 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $150,000 Active 267 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $150,000 Active 266 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − HOA: −$4,680
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $2,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$480
• After-tax cash flow: $3,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,500–$22,500 screening

The home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to increase its value. The kitchen and bathrooms are in need of updates to modernize the space and increase its appeal to potential buyers and renters.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom tile — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathrooms will increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $174,500 MOMLS
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $178,000 MOMLS