107 A Hudson Pkwy · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 172 Days on market

Built 1978 Average condition $110/sqft · 6% below area Est $176k · 6% under $390/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained Lexington model with an open floor plan and lots of storage space. 2 Full Baths and 2 bedrooms along with relaxing and bright sunroom. French doors lead into living/dining room combo. Eat-in kitchen with oversized pantry close by in hallway for easy access. Electric fireplace in living room to add ambiance. C/A replaced in 2019, Windows & interior doors were replaced. French doors installed 2010. Outside patio with canopy. One car garage for convenience.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• French doors
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LOTS OF STORAGE SPACE
• RELAXING SUNROOM
• FRENCH DOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,920
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -6.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 A Yorktowne Pkwy	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,545 (+3%)	4mo	$210,000	$136	80
196 Constitution Blvd	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,398 (-7%)	2mo	$168,000	$120	76
1-B Pilgrim Ct	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,565 (+4%)	3mo	$163,000	$104	74
26A Franklin Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,596 (+6%)	4mo	$205,000	$128	69
1 Adams Ct	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,350 (-10%)	6mo	$178,000	$132	69
7-B Drake St Sec 53	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,544 (+3%)	3mo	$220,000	$142	58
7 B Birchwood Ct	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-7%)	2mo	$200,000	$144	58
11 Woodview Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,613 (+8%)	5mo	$485,000	$301	54
16 Hudson Pkwy	0.51mi	2/1.5	1,318 (-12%)	0mo	$140,000	$106	54
5 Bayberry Ln Unit A	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-7%)	2mo	$220,000	$158	54
2 Liberty Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,285 (-14%)	1mo	$165,000	$128	53
3B Drake St #53	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-7%)	3mo	$210,000	$151	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,550
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,740
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$390
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	1d	1	0.55mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	44d	1	0.55mi
— Lakehurst, NJ	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	1d	1	0.77mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.84mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	17d	1	0.88mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	21d	1	1.03mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	1.03mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	4d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $390 · $4,680/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $165,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,500 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,500 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,500 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,500 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,500 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,500 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,500 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,500 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,500 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,500 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,500 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,500 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,500 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $174,500 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Well maintained Lexington model with an open floor plan and lots of storage space. 2 Full Baths and 2 bedrooms along with relaxing and bright sunroom. French doors lead into living/dining room combo. Eat-in kitchen with oversized pantry close by in hallway for easy access. Electric fireplace in living room to add ambiance. C/A replaced in 2019, Windows & interior doors were replaced. French doors installed 2010. Outside patio with canopy. One car garage for convenience.

16. 2025-12-29
    status Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Well maintained Lexington model with an open floor plan and lots of storage space. 2 Full Baths and 2 bedrooms along with relaxing and bright sunroom. French doors lead into living/dining room combo. Eat-in kitchen with oversized pantry close by in hallway for easy access. Electric fireplace in living room to add ambiance. C/A replaced in 2019, Windows & interior doors were replaced. French doors installed 2010. Outside patio with canopy. One car garage for convenience.

17. 2025-12-09
    listed $178,000 Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Well maintained Lexington model with an open floor plan and lots of storage space. 2 Full Baths and 2 bedrooms along with relaxing and bright sunroom. French doors lead into living/dining room combo. Eat-in kitchen with oversized pantry close by in hallway for easy access. Electric fireplace in living room to add ambiance. C/A replaced in 2019, Windows & interior doors were replaced. French doors installed 2010. Outside patio with canopy. One car garage for convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − HOA: −$4,680
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$209
• After-tax cash flow: $1,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to increase its value. The kitchen and bathrooms are in need of updates to modernize the space and increase its appeal to potential buyers and renters.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom tile — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will increase both resale and rental value
• Both update bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathrooms will increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom tile · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$15,500–78,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathrooms will increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $174,500 MOMLS
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $178,000 MOMLS