2031 Seashore Hills Rd SW · Holden Beach, NC 28462

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Manufactured public records · 223 Days on market

Built 1988 0.31 ac lot Est $144k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Seashore Hills community of Supply. Inside, you'll find a cozy den with a fireplace and a spacious kitchen featuring plenty of cabinet storage, perfect for those who love to cook or entertain. This home also has a dedicated laundry room that adds extra convenience for everyday living. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front porch, a rear deck, and a large yard ideal for gatherings, pets, or children at play. A storage building in the backyard provides even more space for tools, beach gear, or hobbies. Located in a prime area of Supply, this home offers easy access to local beaches, shopping, and dining, while maintai

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious kitchen
• Rear deck

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINET STORAGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Co-R-6000; Road frontage: City street and state road; Lot dimensions approximately 90 x 150 (0.31 acres)

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved off-street parking with space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/deck/porch; Deck; Porch; Partial fencing; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Negotiable furnished status; Accessible full bathroom; Crawl space basement; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $677 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.1% in Holden Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#334 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: cost of living D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 506 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $149k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.47%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,004
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1979 Cedar Ln SW	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+1%)	7mo	$143,000	$136	83
1890 Vale St SW	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+1%)	7mo	$146,000	$139	76
2152 Forest Dr SW	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+3%)	7mo	$156,000	$147	76
2149 Seashore Hills Rd SW	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-2%)	10mo	$165,000	$163	73
2018 Blackjack St SW	0.23mi	3/2.0	962 (-7%)	9mo	$185,000	$192	70
1757 Oxpen Rd SW	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-5%)	9mo	$140,000	$143	67
1911 Thompson Ave SW	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,055 (+2%)	3mo	$175,000	$166	59
2180 Creekwood Ct SW	0.58mi	3/2.0	980 (-5%)	8mo	$122,900	$125	58
2024 Crest Ln SW	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,085 (+5%)	2mo	$115,000	$106	57
2075 Gum St SW	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-11%)	2mo	$105,000	$114	53
2017 Perch Ct SW	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	912 (-12%)	10mo	$105,000	$115	52
2004 Gum St SW	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	893 (-14%)	3mo	$110,000	$123	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $18,936
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $71,854
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,161

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $149,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-04-22
   price $149,000
4. 2026-01-29
   status Active
5. 2026-01-17
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2025-10-20
   listed $159,999 Active
7. 1997-03-01
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 38.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $6,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $6,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Holden Beach

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #334
• US rank: #13586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+272.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $149,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-01-17 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $159,999 Hive MLS
• 1997-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +259.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.