517 Tamrandon Ln · Forestdale, AL 35005

$119,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Built 1999 0.60 ac lot Est $198k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath tucked away at the end of a quiet dead-end rd. The front door leads to a spacious living room featuring a stunning see-through fireplace that connects to the large family room. Enjoy a formal dining area along with a generous kitchen that offers a breakfast nook and plenty of counter/cabinet space. Master suite with walk-in closet and private bath. Split bedroom design with 3 additional bedrooms and a full bath on the opposite side of the home. Large laundry room leads to the backdoor. Step outside to a private backyard that backs up to peaceful wooded views. If you’re searching for a spacious and affordable home, this one is a must-see! Book your showing today!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Walk-in closet
• Private backyard

Tags

• SEE-THROUGH FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WOODED VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 6.5% in Forestdale — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#367 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,000
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3009 Westview Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,885 (-6%)	1mo	$232,500	$123	80
703 Mimosa Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,934 (-3%)	5mo	$185,000	$96	76
205 Forest Lane Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,140 (+7%)	16mo	$204,900	$96	70
2904 Crestlane Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-12%)	3mo	$200,000	$114	62
309 Hilltop Rd	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,115 (+6%)	15mo	$214,900	$102	62
204 Hilltop Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-8%)	21mo	$183,000	$99	59
704 Hillcrest Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,733 (-13%)	12mo	$234,000	$135	53
2727 Forestdale Blvd	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,288 (+14%)	10mo	$188,000	$82	51
401 Foust Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,917 (-4%)	8mo	$219,900	$115	51
201 Blackmon Cir	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,766 (-12%)	16mo	$160,000	$91	48
3209 Elm St	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,263 (+13%)	4mo	$144,300	$64	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,387
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $11,100
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35005

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $523/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $914

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $239	+0% $206	+5% $172	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $159	+0% $206	+5% $252	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $236	base $206	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
328 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,100	$0.75	44d	1	1.40mi
308 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,250	$0.85	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    status Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath tucked away at the end of a quiet dead-end rd. The front door leads to a spacious living room featuring a stunning see-through fireplace that connects to the large family room. Enjoy a formal dining area along with a generous kitchen that offers a breakfast nook and plenty of counter/cabinet space. Master suite with walk-in closet and private bath. Split bedroom design with 3 additional bedrooms and a full bath on the opposite side of the home. Large laundry room leads to the backdoor. Step outside to a private backyard that backs up to peaceful wooded views. If you’re searching for a spacious and affordable home, this one is a must-see! Book your showing today!

15. 2026-03-18
    historical Contingent 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath tucked away at the end of a quiet dead-end rd. The front door leads to a spacious living room featuring a stunning see-through fireplace that connects to the large family room. Enjoy a formal dining area along with a generous kitchen that offers a breakfast nook and plenty of counter/cabinet space. Master suite with walk-in closet and private bath. Split bedroom design with 3 additional bedrooms and a full bath on the opposite side of the home. Large laundry room leads to the backdoor. Step outside to a private backyard that backs up to peaceful wooded views. If you’re searching for a spacious and affordable home, this one is a must-see! Book your showing today!

16. 2026-03-01
    price $119,900 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath tucked away at the end of a quiet dead-end rd. The front door leads to a spacious living room featuring a stunning see-through fireplace that connects to the large family room. Enjoy a formal dining area along with a generous kitchen that offers a breakfast nook and plenty of counter/cabinet space. Master suite with walk-in closet and private bath. Split bedroom design with 3 additional bedrooms and a full bath on the opposite side of the home. Large laundry room leads to the backdoor. Step outside to a private backyard that backs up to peaceful wooded views. If you’re searching for a spacious and affordable home, this one is a must-see! Book your showing today!

17. 2025-12-23
    listed $129,900 Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath tucked away at the end of a quiet dead-end rd. The front door leads to a spacious living room featuring a stunning see-through fireplace that connects to the large family room. Enjoy a formal dining area along with a generous kitchen that offers a breakfast nook and plenty of counter/cabinet space. Master suite with walk-in closet and private bath. Split bedroom design with 3 additional bedrooms and a full bath on the opposite side of the home. Large laundry room leads to the backdoor. Step outside to a private backyard that backs up to peaceful wooded views. If you’re searching for a spacious and affordable home, this one is a must-see! Book your showing today!

18. 2003-11-04
    soldstatus $80,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $523 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $523 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$523
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $512
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$123
• After-tax cash flow: $2,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Forestdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #21236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forestdale, AL
• City population: 17,027
• Population (ZIP): 8,143

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 38% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.72%
• Current HPI: 237.5788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+48.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-18 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $119,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2003-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $523 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.