1947 Highway 164 W · Groesbeck, TX 76642

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1965 0.80 ac lot $70/sqft · 49% below area Est $225k · 49% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home has great potential to become a beautiful home or investment. The desirable location offers close proximity to town amenities. With great potential throughout, this home offers the perfect opportunity to add your personal touches and make it truly yours.

Key facts

• 0.8 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.6% in Groesbeck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#777 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Groesbeck ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,204
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -48.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Faulkenberry Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-1%)	20mo	$129,900	$80	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-11,373
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-478
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76642

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,024

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $146	+0% $114	+5% $81	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $67	+0% $114	+5% $160	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $143	base $114	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 E Walker St Groesbeck, TX	4.0	2.0	1554	$1,095	$0.70	44d	1	1.17mi
102 E State St Groesbeck, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $115,000 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home has great potential to become a beautiful home or investment. The desirable location offers close proximity to town amenities. With great potential throughout, this home offers the perfect opportunity to add your personal touches and make it truly yours.

17. 2025-11-03
    listed $139,000 Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home has great potential to become a beautiful home or investment. The desirable location offers close proximity to town amenities. With great potential throughout, this home offers the perfect opportunity to add your personal touches and make it truly yours.

18. 2005-05-31
    soldstatus
19. 2003-05-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groesbeck ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821810
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,929
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7487
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Groesbeck

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #777
• US rank: #14137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,226

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,396 people
• By 2030: 23,214 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 22,829 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 22,516 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 22,088 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 20,354 · -13.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 21.2% · R 78.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.70%
• Current HPI: 190.097
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2005-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,896 · +18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.