168 Wheeler St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1930 4,104 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 168 Wheeler! This adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath property is nestled in desirable Tonawanda. Step inside to find a bright open-concept layout that perfectly blends cozy living with modern flow that is ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a long day. The home features a fully usable basement, offering endless possibilities for storage, a workshop, or future finishing. Sitting on a spacious double lot, there’s plenty of room to garden, play, or even expand which is a rare find in this area! Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for a low-maintenance home with great curb appeal and convenience to local shops, parks, and schools. The roof and Siding

Key facts

• 4,104 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-27/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $170k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,851 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-22,306
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,197
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,554/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,381

Max offer price $169,506

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268-360 Hinds St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	500	$1,214	$2.43	11d	1	0.35mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	11d	1	0.97mi
1974 Newell Ave Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	675	$1,185	$1.76	3d	3	1.05mi
4-18 Concord Ct Tonawanda, NY	1.0	1.0	730	$1,395	$1.91	3d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 2025-10-25
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-25
   historical
5. 2025-10-16
   listed $189,900 Active
6. 2024-06-17
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,554 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,213 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$659/yr (+$55/mo · 42.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,554
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$712
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+208.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-25 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,554 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.