4600 E Mia Ln · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$415,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2001 5,000 sqft lot Est $436k · at est. $235/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an affordable premier adult community with resort style living? This may be what you are looking for, this modest open floor plan offers comfort and style, manicured landscape, extended front seating area, attractive designer front door can be left open to enjoy the seasonal temperature. Kitchen appliances are included, convenient prep island and breakfast bar, fans and window coverings. A/C and furnace were replaced in 2013. Patio has been extended, garage cabinets are in place for additional storage. Trilogy has activities you've been looking for such as golf, tennis, state of the art fitness room, 2 pools, spa, movie theater, bocce, pickle ball, day trips, cards, various craft clubs, restaurant, cafe and much more Just Reduced! Fresh Interior Paint and Shampooed Carpets

Key facts

• Resort style pools
• Great room layout
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM LAYOUT
• EXTENDED COVERED SEATING AREA
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PICKLEBALL AND TENNIS COURTS
• RESORT STYLE POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: West on Queen Creek Rd., south on Ranch House Parkway, through guard gate, left on Village Parkway, through second gate, right on Mia Lane
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Quarterly association fee includes grounds maintenance and street maintenance; No visible trucks, trailers, RVs, or boats allowed; Community amenities: pool, community spa (heated), golf, pickleball courts, tennis courts, fitness center, biking/walking paths, concierge, guarded entry

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener, direct access, and attached garage cabinets
• Security: Gated community with guarded entry; Security guard
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick veneer, stucco, and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Wrought iron fencing; Sprinklers front and rear with auto timer; Desert landscaping front and back; Gravel/stone in front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis system; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Possible 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Double vanity in bath; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters; Dual-pane windows; Hard/low nap floors (accessibility)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-702 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (38.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cortina Elementary (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B, #121 of 1,109 statewide, top 11%, 702 students, 10% FRL); Sossaman Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 1,043 students, 13% FRL); Higley High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 2,137 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $415k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,069 (38.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.25%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,218
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5127 S Almond Ct	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,334 (0%)	3mo	$420,000	$315	90
4684 E Walnut Rd	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,332 (-0%)	1mo	$435,000	$327	84
4532 E Indigo St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,407 (+6%)	4mo	$420,000	$299	77
4687 E Mia Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,433 (+7%)	2mo	$460,000	$321	77
4624 E Indigo St	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,437 (+8%)	4mo	$425,000	$296	75
4694 E Mia Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,407 (+6%)	2mo	$480,000	$341	75
4613 E Walnut Rd	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,411 (+6%)	5mo	$405,000	$287	73
5091 S Peachwood Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,412 (+6%)	3mo	$477,500	$338	73
5020 S Citrus Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,471 (+10%)	3mo	$549,000	$373	72
4685 E Walnut Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,437 (+8%)	3mo	$470,000	$327	71
4624 E Alfalfa Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-14%)	2mo	$400,000	$347	59
4673 E Alfalfa Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-14%)	4mo	$395,000	$343	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $139,286
• Equity at exit: $325,588

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $445,311
• Equity at exit: $656,370

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,561 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,691/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,450

Max offer price $290,952

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-467	-5% $-585	+0% $-702	+5% $-820	+10% $-937
Rent	-10% $-905	-5% $-803	+0% $-702	+5% $-601	+10% $-500
Rate	-1.0pp $-493	-0.5pp $-597	base $-702	+0.5pp $-810	+1.0pp $-919

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4554 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,500	$1.78	26d	1	0.28mi
5141 S Eucalyptus Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1604	$3,700	$2.31	0d	1	0.44mi
4269 E Cassia Ln Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,495	$1.77	26d	1	0.47mi
4502 E Narrowleaf Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1604	$2,500	$1.56	26d	1	0.50mi
4094 E Azalea Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,500	$1.91	26d	1	0.67mi
7640 S Power Rd Gilbert, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	975	$1,391	$1.43	3d	4	1.20mi
4374 S Woodshed Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,249	$1.30	21d	1	1.20mi
4091 S Vineyard Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,149	$1.36	26d	1	1.22mi
3710 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,650	$1.46	14d	1	1.24mi
4569 E Sundance Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,050	$1.29	26d	1	1.24mi
3636 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$3,075	$1.69	18d	1	1.33mi
18650 E Swan Dr Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,400	$1.47	20d	1	1.33mi
5149 S Moccasin Trl Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,575	$1.54	0d	1	1.39mi
4632 E Germann Rd Gilbert, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,793	$1.71	12d	23	1.42mi
4632 E Germann Rd Gilbert, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,696	$1.61	0d	21	1.42mi
4055 S Ranch House Pkwy Gilbert, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,549	$2.46	0d	6	1.48mi
21009 S 194th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,799	$1.77	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $415,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 671-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $415,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,691 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,739 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,048/yr (+$87/mo · 62.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$1,691
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,458
• − Management: −$2,458
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$16,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,862
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Higley Unified School District (4248)
• NCES district ID: 0403780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $82,526
• Composite: 51.7/100
• National rank: #1688
• State rank: #21 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+223.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $415,000 ARMLS
• 2013-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-27 Sold (MLS) $215,000 ARMLS
• 2013-12-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2013-12-02 Price Changed $218,000 ARMLS
• 2013-11-13 Price Changed $227,900 ARMLS
• 2013-10-16 Listed $234,900 ARMLS
• 2006-03-08 Sold (MLS) $268,400 ARMLS
• 2006-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $268,400 Public Records
• 2006-01-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-09-09 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2002-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $128,490 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,691 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.