31206 Harp Ridge Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$309,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $152/sqft · 36% below area Est $484k · 36% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY. Welcome to the Hanna floorplan. A two-story home offering 2,042 sqft with an open-concept layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and family room. Outside you will find a covered patio Perfect for entertaining or enjoying a cup of coffee. The primary suite located downstairs, includes a spacious walk-in closet with a relaxing bathroom. Upstairs you will find three additional bedrooms and a spacious game room. Providing a flexible space for everyone. Enjoy all of Tamarron’ s amenities such as a resort-style pools, splash pad, fitness centers, playgrounds, lakes, trails & sports fields. Close to shopping, dining, I-10, Grand Pkwy & Westpark Tollway.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 13 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1802 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,815 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,348
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -36.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3051 Liams Tower Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,042 (0%)	0mo	$318,990	$156	93
2834 Garden Meadow St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-2%)	0mo	$395,000	$198	73
3083 Liams Tower Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-13%)	1mo	$299,990	$169	66
31127 Bonnington Venture Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-13%)	0mo	$299,990	$169	66
2806 Peach Valley Rd	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,341 (+15%)	0mo	$475,000	$203	65
2726 Sunrise Field Ln	0.49mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-8%)	0mo	$403,900	$215	62
3302 Hopper Knoll Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,199 (+8%)	1mo	$349,990	$159	56
31930 Rich Meadows Ct	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,290 (+12%)	0mo	$429,000	$187	54
3318 Bonnie Heights St	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,199 (+8%)	0mo	$344,990	$157	52
3515 Ashe Landing Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,199 (+8%)	0mo	$349,990	$159	52
3518 Bonnie Heights St	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,199 (+8%)	1mo	$349,990	$159	50
31731 Fern Grove Rd	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,317 (+14%)	0mo	$460,000	$199	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-64,470
• Equity at exit: $46,221

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-93,835
• Equity at exit: $26,802

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 179 active · 141 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $357,990 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +28.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1802
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $294,719

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $2	+0% $-106	+5% $-213	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-207	+0% $-106	+5% $-4	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-27	base $-106	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31306 Bentley Pines Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	18d	1	0.06mi
3206 Langley Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2276	$2,300	$1.01	38d	1	0.57mi
2826 Torrey Pines Dr Unit DO Pattison, TX	4.0	2.5	2657	$2,071	$0.78	101d	1	0.60mi
3702 Birtley Bend Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2688	$3,499	$1.30	37d	1	0.94mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	139d	1	0.98mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,330	$1.36	0d	8	1.03mi
2126 Great Egret Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,170	$1.27	2d	1	1.27mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	108d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-07-02
   days on market $309,990 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-07-01
   days on market $309,990 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-30
   price $309,990 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-30
   days on market $314,990 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-29
   pricedays on marketlisting id $314,990 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-29
   days on market $309,990 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-28
   days on market $309,990 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-27
   days on market $309,990 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-26
   pricedays on market $309,990 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-24
    days on market $314,990 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-22
    days on market $314,990 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $314,990 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-17
    days on market $326,990 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-16
    days on market $326,990 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-06-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-06-13
    remarks 685-char remark
18. 2026-06-13
    listed $326,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,475
• − Management: −$2,475
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$6,594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,583
• After-tax cash flow: $316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready single-family home in Fulshear, TX, offers a good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good resale and rental value potential with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Fulshear H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $326,990 HARMLS